Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). HAW wins about 80% of the time at a number like ours.
NMSU
Games
4
Plays per game
68.0
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
-17.8 (126th, offence 122nd, defence 126th)
Returning production
24% (pass 40%, rush 81%, receiving 30%)
HAW
Games
4
Plays per game
74.2
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
-12.2 (114th, offence 111th, defence 108th)
Returning production
65% (pass 91%, rush 21%, receiving 52%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
NMSU
HAW
pass rate, all downs
56%18th
68%1st
pass rate, standard downs
49%14th
61%1st
pass rate, 1st down
48%34th
61%2nd
no-huddle share
82%42nd
36%93rd
pass rate, passing downs
71%31st
79%5th
pass rate, red zone
50%18th
67%2nd
seconds per play (own drives)
26.2117th
25.6126th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
NMSU offence
NMSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.121
272
83 of 138
success rate
0.438
272
73 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.397
272
17 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.048
272
94 of 138
rush: success rate
0.454
272
66 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.990
272
59 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.281
272
62 of 138
pass: success rate
0.441
272
69 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.780
272
21 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.473
272
91 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.360
272
40 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.045
272
82 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.168
272
69 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.684
272
100 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.762
272
77 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.176
272
117 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.092
272
81 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.085
272
131 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
75.600
272
3 of 138
HAW offence
HAW offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.042
297
112 of 138
success rate
0.384
297
117 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.125
297
116 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.008
297
116 of 138
rush: success rate
0.433
297
85 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.869
297
94 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.117
297
105 of 138
pass: success rate
0.373
297
114 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.274
297
131 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.439
297
120 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.291
297
89 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.138
297
65 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.175
297
80 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.800
297
38 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.190
297
113 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.168
297
104 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.108
297
110 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.061
297
87 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.700
297
23 of 138
NMSU defence
NMSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.158
265
108 of 138
success rate
0.423
265
94 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.230
265
71 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.150
265
116 of 138
rush: success rate
0.425
265
87 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.014
265
95 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.199
265
86 of 138
pass: success rate
0.421
265
91 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.469
265
51 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.477
265
90 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.315
265
100 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.156
265
109 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.187
265
56 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.889
265
133 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.346
265
124 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.121
265
14 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.079
265
35 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.042
265
22 of 138
opponent average starting field position
65.600
265
2 of 138
HAW defence
HAW defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.213
268
124 of 138
success rate
0.466
268
126 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.227
268
70 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.250
268
131 of 138
rush: success rate
0.490
268
131 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.031
268
102 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.130
268
70 of 138
pass: success rate
0.435
268
103 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.447
268
47 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.526
268
128 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.306
268
95 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.437
268
134 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.110
268
3 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
268
83 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.773
268
98 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.134
268
30 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.075
268
29 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.060
268
65 of 138
opponent average starting field position
74.800
268
117 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs