Betting
Spread
NMSU favouredMarket HAW −7.5Ours HAW −14.1
HAW favouredgap 6.6 toward HAW
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| NMSU away | +7.5 | 21.5 | +240 | 28.2% | — |
| HAW home | -7.5 | 29.0 | -298 | 71.8% | — |
| Total | 50.5 | |
The closing line: this game was played before live prices were being collected.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| NMSU away | +14.0 | 18.2 | 18.4% | +6.5 |
| HAW home | -14.0 | 32.3 | 81.6% | -6.5 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| NMSU away | +10.0 | 20.0 | 25.4% | +2.5 |
| HAW home | -10.0 | 29.8 | 74.6% | -2.5 |
| Total | 49.7 | | | -0.8 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | NMSU | HAW |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | -5.5126th | +0.459th |
| Defence (cards) | -1.092nd | -0.679th |
| Card team rating | -6.5115th | -0.364th |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | -17.8126th | -12.2114th |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | -0.9129th | -0.7116th |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | -1.4128th | -1.0114th |
| Card line | HAW -14.1 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 24% | 65% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Trey Hedden NMSU72 ▲1 overall · Junior
Points added per play0.225
Completion54.3%
TD–INT5-5
Pass attempts, median game28
Pass yards, median game255
Rush yards, median game-6
Games this season4
Team throws per game34.8
Micah Alejado HAW82 overall · Sophomore
Points added per play0.100
Completion60.2%
TD–INT3-1
Pass attempts, median game45
Pass yards, median game249
Rush yards, median game-3
Games this season4
Team throws per game46.5
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| NMSU away | 3-2 | 60% | +4.9 | 2-3 | +1.9 |
| HAW home | 1-3 | 25% | -8.8 | 1-3 | -5.8 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
No 4+ streak in any split for either side.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
Built when the game's bundle is (Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex).
Who is out (reported)
No news read for this game yet.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| NMSU | R. Lotten TE | out Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Lotten is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and a timetable for return has yet to be established.. |
| NMSU | R. Burton RB | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 13 | Burton is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will suit up against NM State on Saturday, September 26th. |
| HAW | T. Griffiths WR | questionable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Griffiths is dealing with an undisclosed injury and it is unclear if he will play Saturday against the San Jose State |
| HAW | P. Ashlock WR | out Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Ashlock is nursing an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an extended period. |
| HAW | C. Barfield RB | probable Ankle | Sat, Sep 26 | Barfield is dealing with an undisclosed injury, but he is projected to suit up against Wyoming on Saturday. |
| HAW | I. Jaramilla-Phe QB | out Undisclosed | Thu, Sep 24 | Jaramilla-Phe is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and is not expected to be active against the Wyoming on Saturday. |
| HAW | A. Hickman TE | out Undisclosed | Thu, Sep 24 | Hickman is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and is not expected to be active against the Wyoming on Saturday. |
| HAW | M. Alejado QB | questionable Arm | Sun, Sep 13 | Alejado is nursing a arm injury, and it is uncertain if he will kit up against Wyoming on Saturday, September 26th. |
| HAW | D. Heimuli WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 13 | Heimuli is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be established if he will be active against Wyoming on Saturday, September 26th. |
| HAW | O. Salave'a TE | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 13 | Salave'a sat out the game due to an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will kit up against Wyoming on Saturday, September 26th. |
| HAW | R. Haynes IV WR | out Undisclosed | Thu, Sep 3 | Haynes IV is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season. |