Thu 8:15 pm
PITatCLE
PIT -2.5
Sun 9:30 am
INDatWAS
IND -3.5
Sun 1 pm
TENatBAL
BAL -11.5
Sun 1 pm
NEatBUF
BUF -7
Sun 1 pm
NYJatCHI
CHI -3.5
Sun 1 pm
JAXatCIN
CIN -2.5
Sun 1 pm
DALatHOU
HOU -3
Sun 1 pm
ARIatNYG
ARI -2.5
Sun 1 pm
LAatPHI
LA -3.5
Sun 1 pm
GBatTB
GB -3.5
Sun 4:05 pm
MIAatMIN
MIN -10.5
Sun 4:25 pm
KCatLV
KC -4.5
Sun 4:25 pm
LACatSEA
SEA -7
Sun 4:25 pm
DENatSF
SF -3
Sun 8:20 pm
DETatCAR
DET -3.5
Mon 8:15 pm
ATLatNO
NO -2.5
2026 season

Week 4

16 games · 15 still to pick
1/16
games picked
15 to come
54
DFS lineups
logged this season
2231–1966
settled record, all models
53% of decided
−34.96
units
across 4224 bets

This week

lines as the book writes them · gap = how far we are from the market, and the side we lean to
GameWe sayMarketGapOur totalMarketStatus
Thursday 8:15 pm1 game
PITatCLEPIT−3.5PIT−2.5PIT14138.5picked
Sunday 9:30 am1 game
INDatWASWAS−1.5IND−3.5WAS547.548.5·
Sunday 1 pm8 games
TENatBALBAL−14BAL−11.5BAL2.54642.5·
NEatBUFBUF−7.5BUF−7BUF0.54848.5·
NYJatCHICHI−5.5CHI−3.5CHI24643.5·
JAXatCINCIN−5CIN−2.5CIN2.545.551.5·
DALatHOUDAL−3.5HOU−3DAL6.54948.5·
ARIatNYGARI−3.5ARI−2.5ARI14744.5·
LAatPHIPHI−1LA−3.5PHI4.54542.5·
GBatTBPickGB−3.5TB3.54538.5·
Sunday 4:05 pm1 game
MIAatMINMIN−3MIN−10.5MIA7.54338.5·
Sunday 4:25 pm3 games
KCatLVKC−5KC−4.5KC0.545.547.5·
LACatSEASEA−5.5SEA−7LAC1.54142.5·
DENatSFSF−6SF−3SF34947.5·
Sunday 8:20 pm1 game
DETatCARDET−4DET−3.5DET0.547.550.5·
Monday 8:15 pm1 game
ATLatNONO−4.5NO−2.5NO24247.5·

Everywhere else

ScoringTop scorers, our projection against DraftKingsPicks & lineupsEvery pick logged at the price it could have gotPlayer cardsRatings, mismatches, careerTeamsStandings and team ratingsFantasyDraft board and my teamSurvivorPool picks

We say and Market are written the way a book quotes them: the favourite and how many points it gives. Gap is how far our line is from the market and the team we lean to; it turns gold in the biggest ~15% of gaps (5+ points) and bold in the top third (3+). Our line has not beaten the closing line, so a gap is a reason to look at a game, not to back it. Built 2026-10-02T00:28:07.156825+00:00.