Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). HAW wins about 77% of the time at a number like ours.
UNM
Games
4
Plays per game
66.0
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
7.7 (46th, offence 61st, defence 29th)
Returning production
58% (pass 74%, rush 71%, receiving 43%)
HAW
Games
4
Plays per game
74.2
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
-12.2 (114th, offence 111th, defence 108th)
Returning production
65% (pass 91%, rush 21%, receiving 52%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
UNM
HAW
pass rate, all downs
35%132nd
68%1st
pass rate, standard downs
30%129th
61%1st
pass rate, 1st down
35%114th
61%2nd
no-huddle share
22%108th
36%93rd
pass rate, passing downs
46%133rd
79%5th
pass rate, red zone
19%130th
67%2nd
seconds per play (own drives)
33.82nd
25.6126th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
UNM offence
UNM offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.163
264
67 of 138
success rate
0.417
264
96 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.235
264
66 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.264
264
19 of 138
rush: success rate
0.462
264
59 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.126
264
18 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.021
264
129 of 138
pass: success rate
0.337
264
129 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.542
264
71 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.473
264
90 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.287
264
94 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.285
264
44 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.140
264
38 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.889
264
8 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.273
264
52 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.117
264
34 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.087
264
69 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.030
264
14 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
59.600
264
138 of 138
HAW offence
HAW offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.042
297
112 of 138
success rate
0.384
297
117 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.125
297
116 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.008
297
116 of 138
rush: success rate
0.433
297
85 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.869
297
94 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.117
297
105 of 138
pass: success rate
0.373
297
114 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.274
297
131 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.439
297
120 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.291
297
89 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.138
297
65 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.175
297
80 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.800
297
38 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.190
297
113 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.168
297
104 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.108
297
110 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.061
297
87 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.700
297
23 of 138
UNM defence
UNM defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.146
237
7 of 138
success rate
0.321
237
13 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.374
237
116 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.145
237
18 of 138
rush: success rate
0.307
237
13 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.926
237
74 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.086
237
58 of 138
pass: success rate
0.351
237
28 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.828
237
126 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.368
237
12 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.247
237
36 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
1.917
237
3 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.246
237
119 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.500
237
8 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.583
237
21 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.249
237
137 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.169
237
133 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.080
237
116 of 138
opponent average starting field position
77.400
237
135 of 138
HAW defence
HAW defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.213
268
124 of 138
success rate
0.466
268
126 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.227
268
70 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.250
268
131 of 138
rush: success rate
0.490
268
131 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.031
268
102 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.130
268
70 of 138
pass: success rate
0.435
268
103 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.447
268
47 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.526
268
128 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.306
268
95 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.437
268
134 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.110
268
3 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
268
83 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.773
268
98 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.134
268
30 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.075
268
29 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.060
268
65 of 138
opponent average starting field position
74.800
268
117 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs