Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). LOU wins about 80% of the time at a number like ours.
WAKE
Games
4
Plays per game
65.8
Drives per game
10.8
SP+
3.7 (57th, offence 50th, defence 63rd)
Returning production
14% (pass 23%, rush 5%, receiving 13%)
LOU
Games
4
Plays per game
67.5
Drives per game
12.8
SP+
9.9 (36th, offence 19th, defence 66th)
Returning production
35% (pass 0%, rush 85%, receiving 18%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
WAKE
LOU
pass rate, all downs
53%35th
46%86th
pass rate, standard downs
43%55th
39%91st
pass rate, 1st down
46%47th
41%87th
no-huddle share
66%66th
31%101st
pass rate, passing downs
74%21st
68%51st
pass rate, red zone
34%89th
36%82nd
seconds per play (own drives)
27.888th
28.083rd
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
WAKE offence
WAKE offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.280
263
31 of 138
success rate
0.452
263
58 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.305
263
36 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.139
263
66 of 138
rush: success rate
0.463
263
58 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.851
263
103 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.400
263
29 of 138
pass: success rate
0.433
263
74 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.752
263
26 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.483
263
81 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.386
263
23 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.138
263
66 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.146
263
43 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.550
263
129 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.731
263
79 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.125
263
41 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.087
263
70 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.038
263
29 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.000
263
46 of 138
LOU offence
LOU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.344
270
12 of 138
success rate
0.500
270
24 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.353
270
23 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.203
270
39 of 138
rush: success rate
0.486
270
35 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.034
270
43 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.487
270
18 of 138
pass: success rate
0.516
270
23 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.663
270
43 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.563
270
16 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.324
270
64 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.809
270
111 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.194
270
96 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.722
270
84 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.393
270
40 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.141
270
70 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.111
270
114 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.030
270
13 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.800
270
82 of 138
WAKE defence
WAKE defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.160
297
110 of 138
success rate
0.468
297
127 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.054
297
17 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.049
297
77 of 138
rush: success rate
0.412
297
78 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.871
297
49 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.252
297
98 of 138
pass: success rate
0.519
297
136 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.098
297
2 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.511
297
122 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.346
297
119 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.865
297
70 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.213
297
93 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.700
297
60 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.385
297
68 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.128
297
22 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.094
297
60 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.034
297
8 of 138
opponent average starting field position
74.500
297
112 of 138
LOU defence
LOU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.106
286
89 of 138
success rate
0.402
286
75 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.238
286
76 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.015
286
53 of 138
rush: success rate
0.430
286
92 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.710
286
15 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.378
286
124 of 138
pass: success rate
0.381
286
58 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.964
286
136 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.455
286
76 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.274
286
61 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.021
286
98 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.121
286
6 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.517
286
11 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.615
286
87 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.136
286
33 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.073
286
23 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.063
286
74 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.100
286
52 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs