Line has moved +1.0 since we first saw it (LOU -12.5 to LOU -11.5).
Betting
Spread
WAKE favouredMarket LOU −11.5Ours LOU −14.3
LOU favouredgap 2.8 toward LOU
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| WAKE away | +11.5 | 23.0 | +380 | 20.0% | 19% |
| LOU home | -11.5 | 34.5 | -500 | 80.0% | 82% |
| Total | 57.5 | |
LOU -12.5 when first seen, now LOU -11.5 · total 58.5 then, 57.5 now. The closing line: this game was played before live prices were being collected.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| WAKE away | +14.5 | 21.6 | 18.0% | +3.0 |
| LOU home | -14.5 | 35.9 | 82.0% | -3.0 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| WAKE away | +10.0 | 20.3 | 24.8% | -1.5 |
| LOU home | -10.0 | 30.4 | 75.2% | +1.5 |
| Total | 50.6 | | | -6.9 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | WAKE | LOU |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | +0.163rd | +5.724th |
| Defence (cards) | +0.944th | +1.627th |
| Card team rating | +1.055th | +7.323rd |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | +3.757th | +9.936th |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | +0.345th | +0.531st |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | +0.453rd | +0.831st |
| Card line | LOU -14.3 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 14% | 35% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Gio Lopez WAKE81 ▲2 overall · Junior
Points added per play—
Completion—
TD–INT—
Pass attempts, median game—
Pass yards, median game—
Rush yards, median game—
Games this season0
Team throws per game31.8
Lincoln Kienholz LOU84 ▲3 overall · Junior
Points added per play0.470
Completion68.8%
TD–INT7-1
Pass attempts, median game26
Pass yards, median game316
Rush yards, median game42
Games this season4
Team throws per game28.8
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| WAKE away | 2-2 | 50% | +4.0 | 2-2 | +5.8 |
| LOU home | 3-1 | 75% | +0.6 | 3-1 | +13.5 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
No 4+ streak in any split for either side.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
| Venue | L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium · turf · 455 ft |
| Forecast at kickoff | 71°F, wind 7 mph, rain 0.00 in |
| Rest | WAKE 7 days · LOU 6 days |
| Travel | WAKE 335 miles, body clock 12:00pm at kickoff, -476 ft elevation |
Who is out (reported)
Antonio Watts LOU — out (Official report, 2026-09-25)
Knee injury; will miss remainder of season.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| WAKE | G. Lopez QB | questionable Undisclosed | Fri, Sep 25 | Lopez is laid up with an undisclosed injury, and it is up in the air if he will be available against the Louisville on Saturday. |
| WAKE | N. Carr WR | out Undisclosed | Wed, Sep 16 | Carr is laid up with an undisclosed injury, and is not expected to play against the Miami on Saturday, September 19th. |
| LOU | E. Lewis WR | probable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Lewis is nursing with an undisclosed injury, but he is expected to play against NC State on Saturday. |
| LOU | H. Atkins TE | out Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Atkins is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he is not expected to face against North Carolina State on Saturday. |
| LOU | M. Quisenberry WR | out Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Quisenberry is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he is not expected to face against North Carolina State on Saturday. |
| LOU | K. Brown RB | probable Undisclosed | Wed, Sep 30 | Brown is managing with an undisclosed injury , but it is expected to play against the North Carolina State on Saturday. |
| LOU | L. McCoy WR | questionable Undisclosed | Wed, Sep 30 | McCoy is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against North Carolina State on Saturday. |
| LOU | L. Kienholz QB | questionable Undisclosed | Mon, Sep 28 | Kienholz is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against North Carolina State on Saturday. |
| LOU | A. Watts CB | out Knee | Fri, Sep 25 | Watts has been out of commission due to a knee injury, and it is anticipated that he will miss the remainder of the season. |
| LOU | T. Richardson WR | probable Undisclosed | Thu, Sep 24 | Richardson is dealing with a Undisclosed injury, but he is expected to suit up against the Wake Forest on Saturday |
| LOU | P. Cook WR | out Undisclosed | Thu, Sep 17 | Cook is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he is not expected to face against SMU on Saturday. |
| LOU | A. O'neal OG | questionable Undisclosed | Fri, Sep 11 | O'Neal is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against SMU on Saturday, September 19th. |
| LOU | K. Hughes WR | out Lower Body | Tue, Aug 11 | Huges has been out of commission due to lower body injury, and it is anticipated that he will miss the remainder of the season. |
Reported, not official: college has no injury report. The first list is the news reader's, with its sources; the table is Covers.com's tags.