Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). SMU wins about 96% of the time at a number like ours.
MOST
Games
4
Plays per game
61.8
Drives per game
10.5
SP+
-17.6 (125th, offence 118th, defence 128th)
Returning production
31% (pass 5%, rush -3%, receiving 47%)
SMU
Games
4
Plays per game
70.5
Drives per game
12.2
SP+
13.0 (26th, offence 16th, defence 41st)
Returning production
57% (pass 97%, rush 1%, receiving 37%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
MOST
SMU
pass rate, all downs
47%83rd
53%33rd
pass rate, standard downs
37%108th
43%58th
pass rate, 1st down
41%89th
47%42nd
no-huddle share
80%45th
48%84th
pass rate, passing downs
68%48th
80%4th
pass rate, red zone
46%34th
41%54th
seconds per play (own drives)
25.8125th
26.4116th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
MOST offence
MOST offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.101
247
94 of 138
success rate
0.401
247
106 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.229
247
67 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.023
247
108 of 138
rush: success rate
0.443
247
78 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.857
247
98 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.229
247
75 of 138
pass: success rate
0.363
247
120 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.756
247
24 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.494
247
66 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.195
247
136 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.994
247
87 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.160
247
59 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.714
247
91 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.368
247
41 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.166
247
101 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.113
247
118 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.053
247
69 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.600
247
24 of 138
SMU offence
SMU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.251
282
40 of 138
success rate
0.518
282
9 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.250
282
59 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.027
282
121 of 138
rush: success rate
0.470
282
49 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.646
282
134 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.603
282
7 of 138
pass: success rate
0.573
282
7 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.710
282
33 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.558
282
21 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.405
282
15 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.039
282
83 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.164
282
62 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.652
282
109 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.903
282
71 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.121
282
37 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.078
282
47 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.043
282
46 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
67.600
282
112 of 138
MOST defence
MOST defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.227
296
128 of 138
success rate
0.517
296
138 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.023
296
7 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.107
296
97 of 138
rush: success rate
0.509
296
135 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.671
296
11 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.382
296
125 of 138
pass: success rate
0.508
296
132 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.487
296
54 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.581
296
138 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.360
296
124 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.332
296
125 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.160
296
31 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.870
296
127 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.969
296
110 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.149
296
48 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.088
296
51 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.061
296
66 of 138
opponent average starting field position
67.400
296
10 of 138
SMU defence
SMU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.023
255
64 of 138
success rate
0.361
255
41 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.317
255
103 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.030
255
71 of 138
rush: success rate
0.426
255
89 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.065
255
109 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.038
255
40 of 138
pass: success rate
0.299
255
7 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.711
255
112 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.434
255
57 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.200
255
11 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.702
255
56 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.213
255
92 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.389
255
2 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.950
255
109 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.204
255
122 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.141
255
124 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.063
255
76 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.600
255
102 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs