Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). TTU wins about 54% of the time at a number like ours.
TTU
Games
4
Plays per game
69.2
Drives per game
12.5
SP+
20.2 (11th, offence 11th, defence 17th)
Returning production
53% (pass 27%, rush 99%, receiving 57%)
BAY
Games
4
Plays per game
82.2
Drives per game
13.8
SP+
8.1 (43rd, offence 55th, defence 31st)
Returning production
60% (pass 78%, rush 68%, receiving 47%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
TTU
BAY
pass rate, all downs
47%82nd
51%47th
pass rate, standard downs
41%75th
40%83rd
pass rate, 1st down
47%39th
40%94th
no-huddle share
57%77th
99%1st
pass rate, red zone
29%114th
46%31st
pass rate, passing downs
60%89th
75%17th
seconds per play (own drives)
26.7107th
23.3136th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
TTU offence
TTU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.272
277
32 of 138
success rate
0.505
277
21 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.154
277
104 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.242
277
27 of 138
rush: success rate
0.524
277
12 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.851
277
102 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.467
277
22 of 138
pass: success rate
0.517
277
22 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.513
277
79 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.548
277
31 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.397
277
20 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.286
277
43 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.177
277
85 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.774
277
53 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.593
277
34 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.177
277
119 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.097
277
91 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.079
277
125 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.800
277
83 of 138
BAY offence
BAY offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.092
329
98 of 138
success rate
0.401
329
104 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.263
329
55 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.055
329
90 of 138
rush: success rate
0.444
329
75 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.862
329
97 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.177
329
87 of 138
pass: success rate
0.373
329
113 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.756
329
23 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.449
329
109 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.298
329
88 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.938
329
95 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.169
329
73 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.737
329
77 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.393
329
100 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.167
329
102 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.103
329
102 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.064
329
92 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
64.200
329
133 of 138
TTU defence
TTU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.003
278
52 of 138
success rate
0.353
278
34 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.376
278
117 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.038
278
72 of 138
rush: success rate
0.359
278
40 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.969
278
87 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.019
278
33 of 138
pass: success rate
0.363
278
38 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.624
278
94 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.374
278
15 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.312
278
98 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.962
278
90 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.194
278
71 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
278
51 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.571
278
20 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.183
278
103 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.101
278
76 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.083
278
121 of 138
opponent average starting field position
74.700
278
114 of 138
BAY defence
BAY defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.115
290
16 of 138
success rate
0.321
290
12 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.139
290
38 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.257
290
5 of 138
rush: success rate
0.280
290
8 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.970
290
88 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.025
290
25 of 138
pass: success rate
0.344
290
23 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.284
290
9 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.361
290
9 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.252
290
43 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.503
290
31 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.264
290
129 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.400
290
4 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
1.958
290
5 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.214
290
127 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.138
290
122 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.076
290
105 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.100
290
51 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs