Betting
Spread
BAY favouredMarket ASU −3.5Ours ASU −2.9
ASU favouredgap 0.6 toward BAY
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| BAY away | +3.5 | 23.0 | +154 | 37.7% | 38% |
| ASU home | -3.5 | 26.5 | -185 | 62.3% | 63% |
| Total | 49.5 | |
ASU -3.5 when first seen, now ASU -3.5 · total 51.5 then, 49.5 now. Over -108 / under -112 · DraftKings, 2026-10-02 06:00 UTC.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| BAY away | +3.0 | 23.3 | 42.1% | -0.5 |
| ASU home | -3.0 | 26.2 | 57.9% | +0.5 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| BAY away | +1.5 | 23.6 | 45.5% | -2.0 |
| ASU home | -1.5 | 25.3 | 54.5% | +2.0 |
| Total | 48.9 | | | -0.6 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | BAY | ASU |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | +2.243rd | +0.556th |
| Defence (cards) | +0.260th | +2.121st |
| Card team rating | +2.447th | +2.645th |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | +8.143rd | +3.060th |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | +0.347th | +0.249th |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | +0.548th | +0.356th |
| Card line | ASU -2.9 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 60% | 16% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
DJ Lagway BAY83 overall · Junior
Points added per play0.113
Completion49.5%
TD–INT4-2
Pass attempts, median game47
Pass yards, median game277
Rush yards, median game-4
Games this season2
Team throws per game39.5
Cutter Boley ASU79 ▲1 overall · Sophomore
Points added per play0.371
Completion63.1%
TD–INT9-2
Pass attempts, median game27
Pass yards, median game254
Rush yards, median game25
Games this season3
Team throws per game31.0
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| BAY away | 3-1 | 75% | +1.8 | 1-3 | -12.0 |
| ASU home | 2-1 | 67% | +2.8 | 2-1 | +10.5 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
| Team | Split | Streak (4+), and what happened next in 8,097 games |
|---|
| BAY | away | lost 4 straight — next game covered 50.6% of the time (14163 cases) |
| BAY | away division | failed to cover 4 straight — next game covered 52.7% of the time (6098 cases) |
| BAY | underdog | lost 5 straight — next game covered 50.6% of the time (10094 cases) |
| BAY | away underdog | lost 4 straight — next game covered 50.6% of the time (14163 cases) |
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
Built when the game's bundle is (Mountain America Stadium).
Who is out (reported)
DJ Lagway BAY — returning (ESPN, 2026-09-26)
QB returned from ankle injury after missing two games, threw 2 TDs in 23-13 victory over Colorado.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| BAY | A. Jones WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Jones is nursing an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will suit up against Arizona St. on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| BAY | C. Redding S | out Knee | Sat, Sep 5 | Redding has been out of commission due to knee injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season. |
| BAY | T. Williams Jr. WR | out Collarbone | Fri, Aug 21 | Williams who is dealing with a collarbone injury, and he will miss an extended period. |
| ASU | G. Rigdon RB | questionable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Rigdon is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be active against the Baylor on Saturday. |
| ASU | K. Anderson TE | out Leg | Mon, Sep 21 | Anderson is sidelined with a leg injury, and it is anticipated that he will miss the remainder of the season. |
| ASU | W. Helton OG | out Leg | Fri, Sep 18 | Helton is sidelined with a leg injury, and he will miss an extended period. |
| ASU | H. Hassmann WR | out Undisclosed | Thu, Sep 17 | Hassmann is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and he is not projected to face against Kansas on Saturday. |
| ASU | Z. Fiaseu LB | IR - Knee ( Tue, Aug 25) | | Fiaseu is sidelined with a knee injury, and he is projected to miss the remainder of the season. |
Reported, not official: college has no injury report. The first list is the news reader's, with its sources; the table is Covers.com's tags.