Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). TTU wins about 93% of the time at a number like ours.
SHSU
Games
4
Plays per game
70.0
Drives per game
13.5
SP+
-14.1 (117th, offence 113th, defence 112th)
Returning production
58% (pass -31%, rush -3%, receiving 57%)
TTU
Games
4
Plays per game
69.2
Drives per game
12.5
SP+
20.2 (11th, offence 11th, defence 17th)
Returning production
53% (pass 27%, rush 99%, receiving 57%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
SHSU
TTU
pass rate, all downs
59%7th
47%82nd
pass rate, standard downs
52%7th
41%75th
pass rate, 1st down
56%5th
47%39th
no-huddle share
83%38th
57%77th
pass rate, passing downs
73%26th
60%89th
pass rate, red zone
54%11th
29%114th
seconds per play (own drives)
29.852nd
26.7107th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
SHSU offence
SHSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.102
280
93 of 138
success rate
0.439
280
71 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.283
280
46 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.040
280
100 of 138
rush: success rate
0.474
280
45 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.824
280
108 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.204
280
80 of 138
pass: success rate
0.434
280
73 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.642
280
49 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.477
280
87 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.353
280
47 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.799
280
112 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.211
280
115 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.611
280
120 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.458
280
95 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.175
280
116 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.111
280
116 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.064
280
96 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.100
280
31 of 138
TTU offence
TTU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.272
277
32 of 138
success rate
0.505
277
21 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.154
277
104 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.242
277
27 of 138
rush: success rate
0.524
277
12 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.851
277
102 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.467
277
22 of 138
pass: success rate
0.517
277
22 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.513
277
79 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.548
277
31 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.397
277
20 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.286
277
43 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.177
277
85 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.774
277
53 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.593
277
34 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.177
277
119 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.097
277
91 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.079
277
125 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.800
277
83 of 138
SHSU defence
SHSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.065
263
74 of 138
success rate
0.388
263
66 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.259
263
86 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.204
263
128 of 138
rush: success rate
0.434
263
99 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.157
263
127 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.058
263
17 of 138
pass: success rate
0.330
263
17 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.396
263
30 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.445
263
65 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.278
263
66 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.075
263
104 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.203
263
80 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.737
263
79 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.875
263
40 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.224
263
132 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.125
263
114 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.099
263
132 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.300
263
53 of 138
TTU defence
TTU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.003
278
52 of 138
success rate
0.353
278
34 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.376
278
117 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.038
278
72 of 138
rush: success rate
0.359
278
40 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.969
278
87 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.019
278
33 of 138
pass: success rate
0.363
278
38 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.624
278
94 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.374
278
15 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.312
278
98 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.962
278
90 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.194
278
71 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
278
51 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.571
278
20 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.183
278
103 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.101
278
76 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.083
278
121 of 138
opponent average starting field position
74.700
278
114 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs