Line has moved +1.0 since we first saw it (TTU -35.5 to TTU -34.5).
Betting
Spread
SHSU favouredMarket TTU −34.5Ours TTU −23.4
TTU favouredgap 11.1 toward SHSU
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| SHSU away | +34.5 | 10.5 | — | — | 2% |
| TTU home | -34.5 | 45.0 | — | — | 99% |
| Total | 55.5 | |
TTU -35.5 when first seen, now TTU -34.5 · total 54.5 then, 55.5 now. The closing line: this game was played before live prices were being collected.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| SHSU away | +23.5 | 16.1 | 6.6% | -11.0 |
| TTU home | -23.5 | 39.4 | 93.4% | +11.0 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| SHSU away | +34.5 | 6.3 | 1.0% | 0.0 |
| TTU home | -34.5 | 40.6 | 99.0% | 0.0 |
| Total | 46.9 | | | -8.6 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | SHSU | TTU |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | -4.5108th | +2.242nd |
| Defence (cards) | -2.1119th | +2.417th |
| Card team rating | -6.5116th | +4.637th |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | -14.1117th | +20.211th |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | -0.8121st | +0.623rd |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | -1.1121st | +1.215th |
| Card line | TTU -23.4 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 58% | 53% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Landyn Locke SHSU73 ▲3 overall · Sophomore
Points added per play0.286
Completion66.2%
TD–INT11-3
Pass attempts, median game36
Pass yards, median game319
Rush yards, median game0
Games this season4
Team throws per game37.5
Will Hammond TTU76 ▲1 overall · Sophomore
Points added per play0.347
Completion69.0%
TD–INT4-5
Pass attempts, median game28
Pass yards, median game241
Rush yards, median game21
Games this season4
Team throws per game30.2
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| SHSU away | 3-1 | 75% | +14.1 | 2-2 | -0.8 |
| TTU home | 1-3 | 25% | -10.5 | 3-1 | -0.8 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
No 4+ streak in any split for either side.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
| Venue | Jones AT&T Stadium · turf · 3218 ft |
| Forecast at kickoff | 81°F, wind 13 mph, rain 0.00 in |
| Rest | SHSU 6 days · TTU 7 days |
| Travel | SHSU 420 miles, body clock 11:00am at kickoff, +2799 ft elevation |
Who is out (reported)
Terrance Carter Jr. TTU — out (ESPN, 2026-09-26)
Star tight end ruled out before the game due to AC joint injury.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| TTU | T. Carter Jr. TE | probable Shoulder | Mon, Sep 28 | Carter Jr is nursing a shoulder injury, but he is expected to play against Colorado on Saturday. |
| TTU | T. White LB | questionable Knee | Sat, Sep 26 | White is battling with a knee injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Colorado on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| TTU | A. Boyd CB | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Boyd is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Colorado on Saturday, October 3rd. |
Reported, not official: college has no injury report. The first list is the news reader's, with its sources; the table is Covers.com's tags.