Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). SHSU wins about 53% of the time at a number like ours.
MTSU
Games
4
Plays per game
61.8
Drives per game
9.5
SP+
-16.0 (122nd, offence 123rd, defence 118th)
Returning production
33% (pass 39%, rush 60%, receiving 26%)
SHSU
Games
4
Plays per game
70.0
Drives per game
13.5
SP+
-14.1 (117th, offence 113th, defence 112th)
Returning production
58% (pass -31%, rush -3%, receiving 57%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
MTSU
SHSU
pass rate, all downs
56%17th
59%7th
pass rate, standard downs
49%18th
52%7th
pass rate, 1st down
52%17th
56%5th
no-huddle share
98%4th
83%38th
pass rate, passing downs
74%23rd
73%26th
pass rate, red zone
67%1st
54%11th
seconds per play (own drives)
30.048th
29.852nd
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
MTSU offence
MTSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.198
247
61 of 138
success rate
0.425
247
86 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.171
247
98 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.165
247
50 of 138
rush: success rate
0.448
247
70 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.880
247
89 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.239
247
72 of 138
pass: success rate
0.415
247
88 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.433
247
104 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.494
247
65 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.278
247
99 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.497
247
21 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.133
247
31 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.733
247
79 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.182
247
56 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.113
247
27 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.053
247
15 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.061
247
89 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.700
247
35 of 138
SHSU offence
SHSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.102
280
93 of 138
success rate
0.439
280
71 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.283
280
46 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.040
280
100 of 138
rush: success rate
0.474
280
45 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.824
280
108 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.204
280
80 of 138
pass: success rate
0.434
280
73 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.642
280
49 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.477
280
87 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.353
280
47 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.799
280
112 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.211
280
115 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.611
280
120 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.458
280
95 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.175
280
116 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.111
280
116 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.064
280
96 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.100
280
31 of 138
MTSU defence
MTSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.101
239
87 of 138
success rate
0.452
239
119 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.120
239
30 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.050
239
78 of 138
rush: success rate
0.463
239
118 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.008
239
94 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.186
239
83 of 138
pass: success rate
0.454
239
109 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.300
239
13 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.511
239
121 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.279
239
67 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.093
239
108 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.176
239
43 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.724
239
73 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.667
239
27 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.117
239
10 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.071
239
19 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.046
239
32 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.900
239
105 of 138
SHSU defence
SHSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.065
263
74 of 138
success rate
0.388
263
66 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.259
263
86 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.204
263
128 of 138
rush: success rate
0.434
263
99 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.157
263
127 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.058
263
17 of 138
pass: success rate
0.330
263
17 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.396
263
30 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.445
263
65 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.278
263
66 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.075
263
104 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.203
263
80 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.737
263
79 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.875
263
40 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.224
263
132 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.125
263
114 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.099
263
132 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.300
263
53 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs