Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). JXST wins about 59% of the time at a number like ours.
MOST
Games
4
Plays per game
61.8
Drives per game
10.5
SP+
-17.6 (125th, offence 118th, defence 128th)
Returning production
31% (pass 5%, rush -3%, receiving 47%)
JXST
Games
5
Plays per game
61.6
Drives per game
9.6
SP+
-2.2 (77th, offence 70th, defence 87th)
Returning production
50% (pass 76%, rush 42%, receiving 49%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
MOST
JXST
pass rate, all downs
47%83rd
46%90th
pass rate, standard downs
37%108th
41%71st
pass rate, 1st down
41%89th
49%26th
no-huddle share
80%45th
41%89th
pass rate, passing downs
68%48th
58%97th
pass rate, red zone
46%34th
32%99th
seconds per play (own drives)
25.8125th
30.629th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
MOST offence
MOST offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.101
247
94 of 138
success rate
0.401
247
106 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.229
247
67 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.023
247
108 of 138
rush: success rate
0.443
247
78 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.857
247
98 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.229
247
75 of 138
pass: success rate
0.363
247
120 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.756
247
24 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.494
247
66 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.195
247
136 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.994
247
87 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.160
247
59 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.714
247
91 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.368
247
41 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.166
247
101 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.113
247
118 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.053
247
69 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.600
247
24 of 138
JXST offence
JXST offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.204
308
58 of 138
success rate
0.481
308
38 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.192
308
89 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.107
308
74 of 138
rush: success rate
0.473
308
46 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.935
308
80 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.383
308
35 of 138
pass: success rate
0.507
308
27 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.500
308
84 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.524
308
43 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.347
308
48 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.122
308
70 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.176
308
83 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.815
308
30 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.286
308
107 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.132
308
50 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.084
308
59 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.048
308
57 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
75.300
308
5 of 138
MOST defence
MOST defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.227
296
128 of 138
success rate
0.517
296
138 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.023
296
7 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.107
296
97 of 138
rush: success rate
0.509
296
135 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.671
296
11 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.382
296
125 of 138
pass: success rate
0.508
296
132 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.487
296
54 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.581
296
138 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.360
296
124 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.332
296
125 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.160
296
31 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.870
296
127 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.969
296
110 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.149
296
48 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.088
296
51 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.061
296
66 of 138
opponent average starting field position
67.400
296
10 of 138
JXST defence
JXST defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.039
324
70 of 138
success rate
0.423
324
93 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.046
324
15 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.087
324
92 of 138
rush: success rate
0.433
324
95 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.871
324
48 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.043
324
42 of 138
pass: success rate
0.408
324
75 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.340
324
18 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.494
324
103 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.236
324
34 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.915
324
84 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.171
324
39 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.840
324
118 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.500
324
79 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.155
324
57 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.100
324
71 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.055
324
53 of 138
opponent average starting field position
74.000
324
108 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs