Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). FIU wins about 63% of the time at a number like ours.
MTSU
Games
4
Plays per game
61.8
Drives per game
9.5
SP+
-16.0 (122nd, offence 123rd, defence 118th)
Returning production
33% (pass 39%, rush 60%, receiving 26%)
FIU
Games
4
Plays per game
73.5
Drives per game
10.8
SP+
-7.6 (99th, offence 124th, defence 61st)
Returning production
32% (pass -1%, rush 16%, receiving 49%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
MTSU
FIU
pass rate, all downs
56%17th
54%26th
pass rate, standard downs
49%18th
48%20th
pass rate, 1st down
52%17th
49%29th
no-huddle share
98%4th
62%69th
pass rate, passing downs
74%23rd
64%65th
pass rate, red zone
67%1st
58%7th
seconds per play (own drives)
30.048th
30.241st
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
MTSU offence
MTSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.198
247
61 of 138
success rate
0.425
247
86 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.171
247
98 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.165
247
50 of 138
rush: success rate
0.448
247
70 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.880
247
89 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.239
247
72 of 138
pass: success rate
0.415
247
88 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.433
247
104 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.494
247
65 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.278
247
99 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.497
247
21 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.133
247
31 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.733
247
79 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.182
247
56 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.113
247
27 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.053
247
15 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.061
247
89 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.700
247
35 of 138
FIU offence
FIU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.009
294
119 of 138
success rate
0.391
294
114 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.207
294
79 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.079
294
128 of 138
rush: success rate
0.346
294
132 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.600
294
135 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.123
294
104 of 138
pass: success rate
0.444
294
67 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.594
294
59 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.441
294
116 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.302
294
80 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.826
294
106 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.180
294
86 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.789
294
45 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.500
294
130 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.153
294
83 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.075
294
45 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.078
294
122 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.300
294
54 of 138
MTSU defence
MTSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.101
239
87 of 138
success rate
0.452
239
119 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.120
239
30 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.050
239
78 of 138
rush: success rate
0.463
239
118 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.008
239
94 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.186
239
83 of 138
pass: success rate
0.454
239
109 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.300
239
13 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.511
239
121 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.279
239
67 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.093
239
108 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.176
239
43 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.724
239
73 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.667
239
27 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.117
239
10 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.071
239
19 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.046
239
32 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.900
239
105 of 138
FIU defence
FIU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.004
249
47 of 138
success rate
0.337
249
20 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.159
249
45 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.058
249
37 of 138
rush: success rate
0.303
249
11 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.896
249
63 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.048
249
45 of 138
pass: success rate
0.363
249
36 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.361
249
22 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.403
249
33 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.232
249
31 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.231
249
10 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.218
249
100 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
249
46 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.762
249
32 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.177
249
85 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.120
249
108 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.056
249
55 of 138
opponent average starting field position
68.200
249
16 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs