Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). NMSU wins about 67% of the time at a number like ours.
WKU
Games
4
Plays per game
71.2
Drives per game
12.8
SP+
-16.4 (123rd, offence 107th, defence 131st)
Returning production
84% (pass 95%, rush 55%, receiving 85%)
NMSU
Games
4
Plays per game
68.0
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
-17.8 (126th, offence 122nd, defence 126th)
Returning production
24% (pass 40%, rush 81%, receiving 30%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
WKU
NMSU
pass rate, all downs
52%39th
56%18th
pass rate, standard downs
44%49th
49%14th
pass rate, 1st down
42%80th
48%34th
no-huddle share
75%54th
82%42nd
pass rate, passing downs
66%54th
71%31st
pass rate, red zone
50%22nd
50%18th
seconds per play (own drives)
26.0123rd
26.2117th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
WKU offence
WKU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.006
285
121 of 138
success rate
0.375
285
121 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.261
285
56 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.105
285
133 of 138
rush: success rate
0.406
285
100 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.720
285
128 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.125
285
101 of 138
pass: success rate
0.359
285
124 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.856
285
13 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.433
285
122 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.276
285
100 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.695
285
120 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.239
285
130 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.714
285
92 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.667
285
83 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.154
285
85 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.119
285
125 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.035
285
21 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.500
285
70 of 138
NMSU offence
NMSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.121
272
83 of 138
success rate
0.438
272
73 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.397
272
17 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.048
272
94 of 138
rush: success rate
0.454
272
66 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.990
272
59 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.281
272
62 of 138
pass: success rate
0.441
272
69 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.780
272
21 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.473
272
91 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.360
272
40 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.045
272
82 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.168
272
69 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.684
272
100 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.762
272
77 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.176
272
117 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.092
272
81 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.085
272
131 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
75.600
272
3 of 138
WKU defence
WKU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.303
258
134 of 138
success rate
0.446
258
114 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.460
258
134 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.341
258
137 of 138
rush: success rate
0.464
258
121 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.232
258
134 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.242
258
95 of 138
pass: success rate
0.429
258
100 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.727
258
116 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.495
258
108 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.329
258
112 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.504
258
136 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.145
258
20 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.850
258
123 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.962
258
131 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.128
258
23 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.074
258
27 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.054
258
50 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.700
258
87 of 138
NMSU defence
NMSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.158
265
108 of 138
success rate
0.423
265
94 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.230
265
71 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.150
265
116 of 138
rush: success rate
0.425
265
87 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.014
265
95 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.199
265
86 of 138
pass: success rate
0.421
265
91 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.469
265
51 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.477
265
90 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.315
265
100 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.156
265
109 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.187
265
56 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.889
265
133 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.346
265
124 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.121
265
14 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.079
265
35 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.042
265
22 of 138
opponent average starting field position
65.600
265
2 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs