Line has moved -4.5 since we first saw it (JMU -14 to JMU -18.5).
Betting
Spread
MRSH favouredMarket JMU −18.5Ours MRSH −0.3
JMU favouredgap 18.8 toward MRSH
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| MRSH away | +18.5 | 19.0 | +700 | 12.0% | 10% |
| JMU home | -18.5 | 37.5 | -1100 | 88.0% | 91% |
| Total | 56.5 | |
JMU -14 when first seen, now JMU -18.5 · total 55.5 then, 56.5 now. Over -105 / under -115 · DraftKings, 2026-10-02 06:00 UTC.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| MRSH away | -0.5 | 28.4 | 51.1% | -19.0 |
| JMU home | +0.5 | 28.1 | 48.9% | +19.0 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| MRSH away | +18.5 | 15.6 | 9.8% | 0.0 |
| JMU home | -18.5 | 34.1 | 90.2% | 0.0 |
| Total | 49.8 | | | -6.7 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | MRSH | JMU |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | +0.458th | -2.485th |
| Defence (cards) | -1.9113th | -0.575th |
| Card team rating | -1.471st | -2.984th |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | -12.5115th | +9.936th |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | -0.5103rd | +0.346th |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | -0.8109th | +0.641st |
| Card line | JMU +0.3 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 99% | 8% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson MRSH80 overall · Senior
Points added per play—
Completion68.8%
TD–INT5-1
Pass attempts, median game25
Pass yards, median game139
Rush yards, median game46
Games this season4
Team throws per game29.0
Camden Coleman JMU76 ▲3 overall · Junior
Points added per play0.263
Completion62.5%
TD–INT7-1
Pass attempts, median game23
Pass yards, median game207
Rush yards, median game12
Games this season4
Team throws per game28.5
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| MRSH away | 1-3 | 25% | -13.1 | 2-2 | +1.3 |
| JMU home | 4-0 | 100% | +18.4 | 2-2 | +7.5 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
| Team | Split | Streak (4+), and what happened next in 8,097 games |
|---|
| JMU | all | won 14 straight — next game covered 49.1% of the time (3632 cases) |
| JMU | day | won 13 straight — next game covered 49.1% of the time (3632 cases) |
| JMU | favourite | won 13 straight — next game covered 49.1% of the time (3632 cases) |
| JMU | home | won 7 straight — next game covered 49.8% of the time (9369 cases) |
| JMU | home favourite | won 7 straight — next game covered 49.8% of the time (9369 cases) |
| JMU | division | won 10 straight — next game covered 49.1% of the time (3632 cases) |
| JMU | home division | won 5 straight — next game covered 50.1% of the time (12375 cases) |
| JMU | favourite of 7+ | won 11 straight — next game covered 49.1% of the time (3632 cases) |
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
Built when the game's bundle is (Bridgeforth Stadium).
Who is out (reported)
Nothing in the news for either side. College publishes no official injury report, so absence of news is not a clean bill of health.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| MRSH | A. Norton WR | questionable Undisclosed | Mon, Sep 28 | Norton is battling with an undisclsoed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against James Madison on Saturday. |
| JMU | Z. Collins WR | questionable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Collins is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Marshall on Saturday. |
| JMU | J. Evans QB | questionable Wrist | Sun, Sep 27 | Evans is dealing with a wrist injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Marshall on Saturday, October 3th. |