Line has moved +2.0 since we first saw it (M-OH -15.5 to M-OH -13.5).
Betting
Spread
BGSU favouredMarket M-OH −13.5Ours M-OH −6.4
M-OH favouredgap 7.1 toward BGSU
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| BGSU away | +13.5 | 15.0 | +425 | 18.3% | 17% |
| M-OH home | -13.5 | 28.5 | -575 | 81.7% | 84% |
| Total | 43.5 | |
M-OH -15.5 when first seen, now M-OH -13.5 · total 50.5 then, 43.5 now. Over -105 / under -115 · DraftKings, 2026-10-02 06:00 UTC.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| BGSU away | +6.5 | 18.6 | 34.0% | -7.0 |
| M-OH home | -6.5 | 24.9 | 66.0% | +7.0 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| BGSU away | +12.0 | 17.9 | 20.6% | -1.5 |
| M-OH home | -12.0 | 30.1 | 79.4% | +1.5 |
| Total | 48.0 | | | +4.5 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | BGSU | M-OH |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | -6.0127th | -4.7112th |
| Defence (cards) | -1.3103rd | -0.676th |
| Card team rating | -7.3123rd | -5.2102nd |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | -26.4136th | -4.388th |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | -0.9126th | -0.493rd |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | -1.6132nd | -0.589th |
| Card line | M-OH -6.4 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | -6% | 14% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Jay Kastantin BGSU73 ▲3 overall · Junior
Points added per play0.101
Completion63.7%
TD–INT2-2
Pass attempts, median game23
Pass yards, median game110
Rush yards, median game6
Games this season4
Team throws per game24.0
David McComb M-OH73 ▲1 overall · Freshman
Points added per play0.656
Completion63.1%
TD–INT7-1
Pass attempts, median game29
Pass yards, median game276
Rush yards, median game16
Games this season4
Team throws per game28.0
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| BGSU away | 1-3 | 25% | -10.8 | 2-2 | -3.0 |
| M-OH home | 3-1 | 75% | -2.5 | 3-1 | +9.8 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
| Team | Split | Streak (4+), and what happened next in 8,097 games |
|---|
| BGSU | underdog | lost 4 straight — next game covered 50.6% of the time (14163 cases) |
| BGSU | away underdog | failed to cover 4 straight — next game covered 52.7% of the time (6098 cases) |
| BGSU | away underdog | lost 6 straight — next game covered 50.2% of the time (7379 cases) |
| M-OH | favourite | covered 7 straight — next game covered 47.5% of the time (1464 cases) |
| M-OH | favourite | won 7 straight — next game covered 49.8% of the time (9369 cases) |
| M-OH | home favourite | covered 4 straight — next game covered 49.4% of the time (6312 cases) |
| M-OH | home favourite | won 4 straight — next game covered 50.4% of the time (16696 cases) |
| M-OH | favourite of 7+ | won 13 straight — next game covered 49.1% of the time (3632 cases) |
Streak picker (spread): bets BGSU — M-OH has covered 7 straight as favourite.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
Built when the game's bundle is (Yager Stadium).
Who is out (reported)
Nothing in the news for either side. College publishes no official injury report, so absence of news is not a clean bill of health.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| BGSU | I. Dawson WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 27 | Dawson is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will suit up against Miami on Saturday, October 3th. |
| BGSU | A. Clay WR | out Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Clay is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season. |
| M-OH | D. McComb QB | out Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | McComb is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and is not expected to be active against the Connecticut on Saturday. |
| M-OH | C. Ross TE | out Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Ross is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and he is not projected to face against the Connecticut on Saturday. |
| M-OH | C. Castner WR | out Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 19 | Castner is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and he is not expected to be active against Cincinnati on Saturday, September 19th. |
| M-OH | N. Butbul TE | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 12 | Butbul is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will be active against Cincinnati on Saturday, September 19th. |
| M-OH | T. Zvonar TE | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 12 | Zvonar is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will suit up against Cincinnati on Saturday, September 19th. |
| M-OH | B. Boeing TE | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 12 | Boeing is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will suit up against Cincinnati on Saturday, September 19th. |
| M-OH | D. Hyatt WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 12 | Hyatt is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will suit up against Cincinnati on Saturday, September 19th. |
| M-OH | E. Karner TE | out Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 5 | Karner is out of action due to an undisclosed injury, and has been shut down for the remainder of the season. |
| M-OH | K. Reynolds WR | out Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 5 | Reynolds has been sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and has been shut down for the remainder of the season. |
| M-OH | T. Gotkowski QB | out Undisclosed | Mon, Aug 24 | Gotkowski is battling with an undisclosed injury, and he will be idle for the remainder of the season. |