Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). BALL wins about 57% of the time at a number like ours.
BUF
Games
4
Plays per game
76.5
Drives per game
14.0
SP+
-17.2 (124th, offence 129th, defence 107th)
Returning production
-1% (pass 9%, rush 9%, receiving -7%)
BALL
Games
4
Plays per game
61.5
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
-25.0 (135th, offence 133rd, defence 133rd)
Returning production
6% (pass 0%, rush -104%, receiving 32%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
BUF
BALL
pass rate, all downs
49%62nd
53%29th
pass rate, standard downs
41%74th
49%17th
pass rate, 1st down
39%97th
45%50th
no-huddle share
82%44th
50%83rd
pass rate, passing downs
65%58th
61%81st
pass rate, red zone
45%35th
52%14th
seconds per play (own drives)
24.4133rd
30.825th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
BUF offence
BUF offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.000
306
122 of 138
success rate
0.333
306
136 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.219
306
72 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.027
306
120 of 138
rush: success rate
0.340
306
133 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.918
306
82 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.047
306
114 of 138
pass: success rate
0.324
306
132 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.502
306
83 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.379
306
134 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.240
306
119 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.704
306
119 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.192
306
95 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.800
306
34 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.250
306
53 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.163
306
97 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.101
306
98 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.062
306
90 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.600
306
39 of 138
BALL offence
BALL offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.047
246
110 of 138
success rate
0.337
246
133 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.417
246
14 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.090
246
83 of 138
rush: success rate
0.357
246
127 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.156
246
13 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.072
246
109 of 138
pass: success rate
0.339
246
128 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.596
246
57 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.392
246
133 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.247
246
115 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.542
246
132 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.214
246
118 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.889
246
7 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.625
246
87 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.199
246
132 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.138
246
134 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.061
246
84 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.700
246
34 of 138
BUF defence
BUF defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.116
276
91 of 138
success rate
0.366
276
44 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.445
276
131 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.017
276
64 of 138
rush: success rate
0.385
276
56 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.926
276
73 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.251
276
97 of 138
pass: success rate
0.367
276
43 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.955
276
135 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.429
276
54 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.257
276
47 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.039
276
100 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.192
276
65 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.625
276
32 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.536
276
81 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.152
276
53 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.076
276
31 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.076
276
106 of 138
opponent average starting field position
68.200
276
15 of 138
BALL defence
BALL defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.325
270
136 of 138
success rate
0.452
270
118 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.455
270
132 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.256
270
133 of 138
rush: success rate
0.420
270
83 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.352
270
136 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.455
270
131 of 138
pass: success rate
0.500
270
129 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.556
270
72 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.495
270
105 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.354
270
123 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.010
270
94 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.188
270
59 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.778
270
98 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.042
270
133 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.119
270
11 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.074
270
25 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.044
270
27 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.400
270
55 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs