Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). BGSU wins about 48% of the time at a number like ours.
BGSU
Games
4
Plays per game
58.0
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
-26.4 (136th, offence 138th, defence 126th)
Returning production
-6% (pass 940%, rush 0%, receiving 3%)
BUF
Games
4
Plays per game
76.5
Drives per game
14.0
SP+
-17.2 (124th, offence 129th, defence 107th)
Returning production
-1% (pass 9%, rush 9%, receiving -7%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
BGSU
BUF
pass rate, all downs
45%95th
49%62nd
pass rate, standard downs
38%99th
41%74th
pass rate, 1st down
38%105th
39%97th
no-huddle share
29%102nd
82%44th
pass rate, passing downs
59%94th
65%58th
pass rate, red zone
25%122nd
45%35th
seconds per play (own drives)
32.68th
24.4133rd
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
BGSU offence
BGSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.115
232
136 of 138
success rate
0.336
232
135 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
0.958
232
138 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.261
232
138 of 138
rush: success rate
0.302
232
138 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.577
232
136 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.059
232
111 of 138
pass: success rate
0.364
232
119 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.447
232
101 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.431
232
124 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.152
232
137 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.431
232
135 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.246
232
133 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.727
232
80 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
1.188
232
138 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.194
232
129 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.138
232
135 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.056
232
76 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.300
232
53 of 138
BUF offence
BUF offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.000
306
122 of 138
success rate
0.333
306
136 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.219
306
72 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.027
306
120 of 138
rush: success rate
0.340
306
133 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.918
306
82 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.047
306
114 of 138
pass: success rate
0.324
306
132 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.502
306
83 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.379
306
134 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.240
306
119 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.704
306
119 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.192
306
95 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.800
306
34 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.250
306
53 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.163
306
97 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.101
306
98 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.062
306
90 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.600
306
39 of 138
BGSU defence
BGSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.227
242
127 of 138
success rate
0.492
242
135 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.294
242
93 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.251
242
132 of 138
rush: success rate
0.520
242
137 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.216
242
133 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.277
242
106 of 138
pass: success rate
0.477
242
122 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.438
242
39 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.556
242
136 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.306
242
94 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.436
242
133 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.169
242
36 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.739
242
81 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.231
242
121 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.120
242
13 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.091
242
56 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.029
242
2 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.100
242
35 of 138
BUF defence
BUF defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.116
276
91 of 138
success rate
0.366
276
44 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.445
276
131 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.017
276
64 of 138
rush: success rate
0.385
276
56 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.926
276
73 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.251
276
97 of 138
pass: success rate
0.367
276
43 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.955
276
135 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.429
276
54 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.257
276
47 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.039
276
100 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.192
276
65 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.625
276
32 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.536
276
81 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.152
276
53 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.076
276
31 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.076
276
106 of 138
opponent average starting field position
68.200
276
15 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs