Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). MASS wins about 48% of the time at a number like ours.
MASS
Games
4
Plays per game
55.0
Drives per game
11.0
SP+
-6.2 (93rd, offence 101st, defence 82nd)
Returning production
-57% (pass -36%, rush 221%, receiving -11%)
BUF
Games
4
Plays per game
76.5
Drives per game
14.0
SP+
-17.2 (124th, offence 129th, defence 107th)
Returning production
-1% (pass 9%, rush 9%, receiving -7%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
MASS
BUF
pass rate, all downs
38%127th
49%62nd
pass rate, standard downs
31%127th
41%74th
pass rate, 1st down
33%118th
39%97th
no-huddle share
8%126th
82%44th
pass rate, passing downs
56%108th
65%58th
pass rate, red zone
22%125th
45%35th
seconds per play (own drives)
31.615th
24.4133rd
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
MASS offence
MASS offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.280
220
30 of 138
success rate
0.450
220
59 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.237
220
65 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.267
220
18 of 138
rush: success rate
0.481
220
39 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.022
220
47 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.362
220
44 of 138
pass: success rate
0.407
220
94 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.671
220
39 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.510
220
50 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.302
220
81 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.520
220
18 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.141
220
40 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.550
220
128 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.889
220
72 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.095
220
12 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.073
220
39 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.023
220
6 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
65.000
220
131 of 138
BUF offence
BUF offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.000
306
122 of 138
success rate
0.333
306
136 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.219
306
72 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.027
306
120 of 138
rush: success rate
0.340
306
133 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.918
306
82 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.047
306
114 of 138
pass: success rate
0.324
306
132 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.502
306
83 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.379
306
134 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.240
306
119 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.704
306
119 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.192
306
95 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.800
306
34 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.250
306
53 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.163
306
97 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.101
306
98 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.062
306
90 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.600
306
39 of 138
MASS defence
MASS defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.139
273
11 of 138
success rate
0.366
273
45 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.020
273
6 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.277
273
4 of 138
rush: success rate
0.353
273
35 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.316
273
1 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.046
273
44 of 138
pass: success rate
0.389
273
65 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.531
273
63 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.421
273
47 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.263
273
53 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.567
273
38 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.218
273
101 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.706
273
64 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
1.500
273
1 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.161
273
69 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.088
273
50 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.073
273
100 of 138
opponent average starting field position
75.300
273
123 of 138
BUF defence
BUF defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.116
276
91 of 138
success rate
0.366
276
44 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.445
276
131 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.017
276
64 of 138
rush: success rate
0.385
276
56 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.926
276
73 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.251
276
97 of 138
pass: success rate
0.367
276
43 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.955
276
135 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.429
276
54 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.257
276
47 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.039
276
100 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.192
276
65 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.625
276
32 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.536
276
81 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.152
276
53 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.076
276
31 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.076
276
106 of 138
opponent average starting field position
68.200
276
15 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs