Buffalo · away
at
—
Saturday 2026-10-10 15:30 · Glass Bowl
Toledo · home
GameNewsMismatchesTeamPersonnelBetting

The trenches

Pass rushsack ratestopped behind the linefacessacks allowedpairing
TOL pass rush7.1% 9937th6.9% 218110thfaces BUF2.9% 6926th5.0% ~1.6 sacks
BUF pass rush1.5% 65129th4.8% 145136thfaces TOL2.1% 9612th1.8% ~0.6 sacks

sacks from CFBD play-by-play; college has no charted pressure, and these rates are not opponent-adjusted Measured on 7,926 team-games 2022–25: a college line's sacks-allowed rate carries +0.27 into its next game and a defence's sack rate only +0.10 — the line is most of this. The pairing predicts the game's sack rate +0.27, yards per dropback −0.16 and points added per play −0.15. Heaviest quarter of pairings against lightest: 7.8% vs 4.2% sack rate, 6.1 vs 7.2 yards per dropback.

BUF with the ball

BUF offence vs TOL defenceBUF offenceTOL defencerank gap
points added per play0.000122nd-0.02339th-83
success rate0.333136th0.32515th-121
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)1.21972nd1.30295th+23
rush: points added per play-0.027120th-0.09529th-91
rush: success rate0.340133rd0.2839th-124
rush: explosiveness0.91882nd0.95882nd0
pass: points added per play0.047114th0.17079th-35
pass: success rate0.324132nd0.39169th-63
pass: explosiveness1.50283rd1.58082nd-1
standard downs: success rate0.379134th0.38619th-115
passing downs: success rate0.240119th0.21016th-103
line yards per rush (the O-line)2.704119th2.62146th-73
rushes stopped at or behind the line0.19295th0.20785th-10
short-yardage conversion rate0.80034th0.3893rd-31
points per trip inside the 404.25053rd2.87541st-12
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)0.16397th0.13531st-66
havoc allowed by the front seven0.10198th0.07324th-74
havoc allowed by the secondary0.06290th0.06272nd-18
average starting field position (yards from own goal)72.60039th——

TOL with the ball

TOL offence vs BUF defenceTOL offenceBUF defencerank gap
points added per play0.26934th0.11691st+57
success rate0.44762nd0.36644th-18
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)1.5271st1.445131st+130
rush: points added per play0.10675th0.01764th-11
rush: success rate0.41596th0.38556th-40
rush: explosiveness1.06730th0.92673rd+43
pass: points added per play0.44024th0.25197th+73
pass: success rate0.48440th0.36743rd+3
pass: explosiveness1.9357th1.955135th+128
standard downs: success rate0.49763rd0.42954th-9
passing downs: success rate0.32959th0.25747th-12
line yards per rush (the O-line)3.07774th3.039100th+26
rushes stopped at or behind the line0.17075th0.19265th-10
short-yardage conversion rate0.667106th0.62532nd-74
points per trip inside the 404.55237th3.53681st+44
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)0.13662nd0.15253rd-9
havoc allowed by the front seven0.07238th0.07631st-7
havoc allowed by the secondary0.06497th0.076106th+9
average starting field position (yards from own goal)68.300106th——

Rank gap = the defence's FBS rank minus the offence's on the same measure: +60 means the offence ranks 60 places better than the defence it faces. Unit against unit only — college has no player charting to name a matchup by.