Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). MASS wins about 57% of the time at a number like ours.
EMU
Games
5
Plays per game
65.2
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
-18.0 (127th, offence 127th, defence 110th)
Returning production
72% (pass 97%, rush 49%, receiving 64%)
MASS
Games
4
Plays per game
55.0
Drives per game
11.0
SP+
-6.2 (93rd, offence 101st, defence 82nd)
Returning production
-57% (pass -36%, rush 221%, receiving -11%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
EMU
MASS
pass rate, all downs
57%15th
38%127th
pass rate, standard downs
49%16th
31%127th
pass rate, 1st down
52%15th
33%118th
no-huddle share
14%118th
8%126th
pass rate, passing downs
75%19th
56%108th
pass rate, red zone
43%44th
22%125th
seconds per play (own drives)
29.755th
31.615th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
EMU offence
EMU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.016
326
124 of 138
success rate
0.371
326
122 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.143
326
110 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.036
326
102 of 138
rush: success rate
0.394
326
109 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.956
326
74 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.058
326
112 of 138
pass: success rate
0.362
326
121 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.310
326
126 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.436
326
121 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.236
326
123 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.895
326
98 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.168
326
68 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.800
326
37 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.179
326
114 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.172
326
112 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.098
326
94 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.074
326
116 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
74.800
326
10 of 138
MASS offence
MASS offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.280
220
30 of 138
success rate
0.450
220
59 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.237
220
65 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.267
220
18 of 138
rush: success rate
0.481
220
39 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.022
220
47 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.362
220
44 of 138
pass: success rate
0.407
220
94 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.671
220
39 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.510
220
50 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.302
220
81 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.520
220
18 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.141
220
40 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.550
220
128 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.889
220
72 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.095
220
12 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.073
220
39 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.023
220
6 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
65.000
220
131 of 138
EMU defence
EMU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.112
332
90 of 138
success rate
0.410
332
84 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.253
332
84 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.064
332
82 of 138
rush: success rate
0.406
332
72 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.040
332
105 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.204
332
87 of 138
pass: success rate
0.426
332
96 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.455
332
50 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.484
332
96 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.265
332
55 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.970
332
92 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.187
332
55 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.696
332
57 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.406
332
72 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.179
332
91 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.095
332
61 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.084
332
122 of 138
opponent average starting field position
68.800
332
23 of 138
MASS defence
MASS defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.139
273
11 of 138
success rate
0.366
273
45 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.020
273
6 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.277
273
4 of 138
rush: success rate
0.353
273
35 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.316
273
1 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.046
273
44 of 138
pass: success rate
0.389
273
65 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.531
273
63 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.421
273
47 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.263
273
53 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.567
273
38 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.218
273
101 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.706
273
64 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
1.500
273
1 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.161
273
69 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.088
273
50 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.073
273
100 of 138
opponent average starting field position
75.300
273
123 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs