Line has moved -2.5 since we first saw it (MASS -3.5 to MASS -6).
Betting
Spread
EMU favouredMarket MASS −6Ours MASS −3
MASS favouredgap 3 toward EMU
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| EMU away | +6.0 | 21.3 | +180 | 34.3% | 33% |
| MASS home | -6.0 | 27.3 | -218 | 65.8% | 68% |
| Total | 48.5 | |
MASS -3.5 when first seen, now MASS -6 · total 49.5 then, 48.5 now. Over -110 / under -110 · DraftKings, 2026-10-02 06:00 UTC.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| EMU away | +3.0 | 22.7 | 42.1% | -3.0 |
| MASS home | -3.0 | 25.8 | 57.9% | +3.0 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| EMU away | +2.5 | 24.4 | 42.4% | -3.5 |
| MASS home | -2.5 | 27.1 | 57.6% | +3.5 |
| Total | 51.5 | | | +3.0 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | EMU | MASS |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | -5.1117th | -5.4125th |
| Defence (cards) | -2.5131st | -1.9114th |
| Card team rating | -7.6124th | -7.3122nd |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | -18.0127th | -6.293rd |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | -1.0131st | -1.0130th |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | -1.4129th | -1.0115th |
| Card line | MASS -3.0 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 72% | -57% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Noah Kim EMU75 ▼1 overall · Senior
Points added per play0.093
Completion61.3%
TD–INT6-3
Pass attempts, median game38
Pass yards, median game174
Rush yards, median game-3
Games this season5
Team throws per game35.0
William "Pop" Watson III MASSnot rated by EA · SR
Points added per play—
Completion—
TD–INT—
Pass attempts, median game—
Pass yards, median game—
Rush yards, median game—
Games this season0
Team throws per game19.2
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| EMU away | 2-3 | 40% | -7.1 | 1-4 | -4.5 |
| MASS home | 3-1 | 75% | +15.9 | 1-3 | -3.3 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
| Team | Split | Streak (4+), and what happened next in 8,097 games |
|---|
| EMU | underdog | lost 5 straight — next game covered 50.6% of the time (10094 cases) |
| EMU | away underdog | lost 10 straight — next game covered 49.5% of the time (2595 cases) |
| EMU | division | covered 4 straight — next game covered 49.4% of the time (6312 cases) |
| MASS | day | gone over 7 straight — next game went over 45.6% of the time (1124 cases) |
| MASS | home | lost 18 straight — next game covered 49.5% of the time (2595 cases) |
| MASS | home favourite | failed to cover 4 straight — next game covered 52.7% of the time (6098 cases) |
| MASS | home favourite | lost 4 straight — next game covered 50.6% of the time (14163 cases) |
| MASS | home division | lost 9 straight — next game covered 51.1% of the time (4270 cases) |
Streak picker (total): bets the under — MASS has gone over 7 straight as day.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
Built when the game's bundle is (Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium).
Who is out (reported)
Nothing in the news for either side. College publishes no official injury report, so absence of news is not a clean bill of health.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| EMU | H. Mack WR | questionable Undisclosed | Mon, Sep 21 | Mack is managing an undisclosed injury, and it is up in the air he will suit up against Lindenwood on Saturday. |
| EMU | N. Devereaux WR | out Undisclosed | Mon, Sep 21 | Devereaux is laid up with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time. |
| EMU | A. Blue RB | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 19 | Blue exited the game with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Lindenwood on Saturday, September 26th. |
| EMU | K. Isaac WR | out Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 19 | Isaac is nursing an undisclosed injury, and he is not projected to be available against Wisconsin on Saturday, September 19th. |
| EMU | A. Turner TE | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 12 | Turner is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will suit up against Wisconsin on Saturday, September 19th. |
| EMU | P. Kokaly TE | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 12 | Kokaly is managing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Wisconsin on Saturday, September 19th. |
| EMU | B. Shelton TE | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 12 | Shelton is tending to an undisclosed injury, and it is up in the air if he will take the field against Wisconsin on Saturday, September 19th. |
| EMU | S. Fishwick WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 12 | Fishwick is tending to an undisclosed injury, and it is up in the air if he will take the field against Wisconsin on Saturday, September 19th. |
| EMU | N. Jones-Davis RB | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 12 | Jones-Davis is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will suit up against Wisconsin on Saturday, September 19th. |
| EMU | N. Lyman WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 12 | Lyman is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will be active against Wisconsin on Saturday, September 19th. |
| EMU | B. Minner WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 12 | Minner is tending to an undisclosed injury, and it is up in the air if he will take the field against Wisconsin on Saturday, September 19th. |
| EMU | J. Holt TE | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 12 | Holt is managing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Wisconsin on Saturday, September 19th. |
| EMU | C. Miller WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 12 | Miller is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will be active against Wisconsin on Saturday, September 19th. |
| EMU | N. Kinsey QB | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 12 | Kinsey is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will suit up against Wisconsin on Saturday, September 19th. |