Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). WMU wins about 73% of the time at a number like ours.
WMU
Games
4
Plays per game
61.2
Drives per game
10.8
SP+
-7.2 (96th, offence 113th, defence 72nd)
Returning production
100% (pass 100%, rush 100%, receiving 100%)
BUF
Games
4
Plays per game
76.5
Drives per game
14.0
SP+
-17.2 (124th, offence 129th, defence 107th)
Returning production
-1% (pass 9%, rush 9%, receiving -7%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
WMU
BUF
pass rate, all downs
43%109th
49%62nd
pass rate, standard downs
39%89th
41%74th
pass rate, 1st down
46%49th
39%97th
no-huddle share
19%113th
82%44th
pass rate, passing downs
50%128th
65%58th
pass rate, red zone
18%131st
45%35th
seconds per play (own drives)
33.63rd
24.4133rd
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
WMU offence
WMU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.093
245
97 of 138
success rate
0.400
245
108 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.167
245
99 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.147
245
63 of 138
rush: success rate
0.413
245
97 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.979
245
64 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.006
245
126 of 138
pass: success rate
0.380
245
111 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.426
245
106 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.450
245
108 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.306
245
75 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.870
245
101 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.167
245
67 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.737
245
78 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.364
245
42 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.131
245
49 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.094
245
86 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.037
245
23 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.600
245
92 of 138
BUF offence
BUF offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.000
306
122 of 138
success rate
0.333
306
136 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.219
306
72 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.027
306
120 of 138
rush: success rate
0.340
306
133 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.918
306
82 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.047
306
114 of 138
pass: success rate
0.324
306
132 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.502
306
83 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.379
306
134 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.240
306
119 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.704
306
119 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.192
306
95 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.800
306
34 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.250
306
53 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.163
306
97 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.101
306
98 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.062
306
90 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.600
306
39 of 138
WMU defence
WMU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.099
269
86 of 138
success rate
0.465
269
125 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.025
269
10 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.022
269
66 of 138
rush: success rate
0.450
269
108 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.720
269
18 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.173
269
81 of 138
pass: success rate
0.464
269
115 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.440
269
42 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.477
269
91 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.432
269
137 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.051
269
103 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.172
269
41 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.720
269
70 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.650
269
89 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.108
269
4 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.056
269
3 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.052
269
45 of 138
opponent average starting field position
76.300
269
132 of 138
BUF defence
BUF defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.116
276
91 of 138
success rate
0.366
276
44 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.445
276
131 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.017
276
64 of 138
rush: success rate
0.385
276
56 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.926
276
73 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.251
276
97 of 138
pass: success rate
0.367
276
43 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.955
276
135 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.429
276
54 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.257
276
47 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.039
276
100 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.192
276
65 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.625
276
32 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.536
276
81 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.152
276
53 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.076
276
31 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.076
276
106 of 138
opponent average starting field position
68.200
276
15 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs