Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). HAW wins about 77% of the time at a number like ours.
SJSU
Games
4
Plays per game
70.8
Drives per game
13.0
SP+
-15.1 (119th, offence 125th, defence 105th)
Returning production
4% (pass -8%, rush 36%, receiving 3%)
HAW
Games
4
Plays per game
74.2
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
-12.2 (114th, offence 111th, defence 108th)
Returning production
65% (pass 91%, rush 21%, receiving 52%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
SJSU
HAW
pass rate, all downs
54%23rd
68%1st
pass rate, standard downs
50%11th
61%1st
pass rate, 1st down
51%19th
61%2nd
no-huddle share
78%49th
36%93rd
pass rate, passing downs
62%77th
79%5th
pass rate, red zone
55%9th
67%2nd
seconds per play (own drives)
24.5132nd
25.6126th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
SJSU offence
SJSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.082
283
100 of 138
success rate
0.396
283
111 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.224
283
69 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.014
283
118 of 138
rush: success rate
0.364
283
124 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.964
283
71 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.240
283
71 of 138
pass: success rate
0.429
283
78 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.447
283
102 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.462
283
98 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.273
283
103 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.182
283
61 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.186
283
91 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.571
283
124 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.360
283
104 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.152
283
82 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.085
283
65 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.067
283
104 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.300
283
45 of 138
HAW offence
HAW offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.042
297
112 of 138
success rate
0.384
297
117 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.125
297
116 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.008
297
116 of 138
rush: success rate
0.433
297
85 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.869
297
94 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.117
297
105 of 138
pass: success rate
0.373
297
114 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.274
297
131 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.439
297
120 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.291
297
89 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.138
297
65 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.175
297
80 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.800
297
38 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.190
297
113 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.168
297
104 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.108
297
110 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.061
297
87 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.700
297
23 of 138
SJSU defence
SJSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.066
287
75 of 138
success rate
0.436
287
104 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.070
287
19 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.106
287
96 of 138
rush: success rate
0.476
287
126 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.876
287
54 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.131
287
71 of 138
pass: success rate
0.418
287
89 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.278
287
8 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.510
287
120 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.270
287
57 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.931
287
86 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.169
287
37 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.833
287
115 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.433
287
74 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.136
287
34 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.070
287
18 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.066
287
88 of 138
opponent average starting field position
68.200
287
18 of 138
HAW defence
HAW defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.213
268
124 of 138
success rate
0.466
268
126 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.227
268
70 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.250
268
131 of 138
rush: success rate
0.490
268
131 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.031
268
102 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.130
268
70 of 138
pass: success rate
0.435
268
103 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.447
268
47 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.526
268
128 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.306
268
95 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.437
268
134 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.110
268
3 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
268
83 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.773
268
98 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.134
268
30 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.075
268
29 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.060
268
65 of 138
opponent average starting field position
74.800
268
117 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs