Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). AF wins about 68% of the time at a number like ours.
NDSU
Games
4
Plays per game
65.0
Drives per game
10.2
SP+
7.8 (45th, offence 54th, defence 33rd)
Returning production
— (pass —, rush —, receiving —)
AF
Games
3
Plays per game
77.7
Drives per game
10.7
SP+
-3.4 (83rd, offence 74th, defence 94th)
Returning production
57% (pass 102%, rush 70%, receiving 13%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
NDSU
AF
pass rate, all downs
40%121st
16%137th
pass rate, standard downs
32%123rd
12%138th
pass rate, 1st down
29%129th
10%138th
no-huddle share
8%125th
7%129th
pass rate, passing downs
58%96th
30%137th
pass rate, red zone
36%78th
16%134th
seconds per play (own drives)
30.240th
30.243rd
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
NDSU offence
NDSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.157
260
70 of 138
success rate
0.400
260
107 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.414
260
15 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.040
260
99 of 138
rush: success rate
0.349
260
131 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.081
260
25 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.377
260
38 of 138
pass: success rate
0.485
260
38 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.794
260
20 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.456
260
103 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.275
260
101 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.826
260
107 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.191
260
94 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.692
260
97 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.083
260
60 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.115
260
32 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.069
260
28 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.046
260
54 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.400
260
72 of 138
AF offence
AF offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.297
233
22 of 138
success rate
0.489
233
32 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.083
233
129 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.336
233
8 of 138
rush: success rate
0.511
233
20 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.966
233
70 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.290
233
59 of 138
pass: success rate
0.417
233
86 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.877
233
9 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.554
233
24 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.286
233
95 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.836
233
6 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.068
233
1 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.808
233
33 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.316
233
47 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.064
233
3 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.021
233
2 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.043
233
43 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.300
233
26 of 138
NDSU defence
NDSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.156
240
5 of 138
success rate
0.392
240
68 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.024
240
9 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.231
240
7 of 138
rush: success rate
0.398
240
67 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.705
240
14 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.030
240
23 of 138
pass: success rate
0.390
240
67 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.438
240
40 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.488
240
100 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.184
240
4 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.646
240
51 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.180
240
48 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.714
240
68 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
1.722
240
4 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.183
240
101 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.104
240
77 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.079
240
112 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.300
240
97 of 138
AF defence
AF defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.004
173
53 of 138
success rate
0.347
173
27 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.430
173
130 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.125
173
107 of 138
rush: success rate
0.398
173
65 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.118
173
122 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.064
173
15 of 138
pass: success rate
0.312
173
14 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.867
173
131 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.411
173
37 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.230
173
29 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.866
173
71 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.216
173
95 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
173
44 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.000
173
111 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.150
173
49 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.075
173
28 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.075
173
101 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.900
173
44 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs