Betting
Spread
NDSU favouredMarket NDSU −1.5Ours AF −8.5
AF favouredgap 10 toward AF
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| NDSU away | -1.5 | 25.0 | -125 | 53.2% | — |
| AF home | +1.5 | 23.5 | +105 | 46.8% | — |
| Total | 48.5 | |
The closing line: this game was played before live prices were being collected.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| NDSU away | +8.5 | 20.0 | 29.6% | +10.0 |
| AF home | -8.5 | 28.5 | 70.4% | -10.0 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| NDSU away | +13.5 | 22.4 | 17.9% | +15.0 |
| AF home | -13.5 | 36.0 | 82.1% | -15.0 |
| Total | 58.4 | | | +9.9 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | NDSU | AF |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | -2.486th | +1.053rd |
| Defence (cards) | -0.678th | -0.885th |
| Card team rating | -3.085th | +0.261st |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | +7.845th | -3.483rd |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | -0.5106th | -0.390th |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | -0.172nd | -0.487th |
| Card line | AF -8.5 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | — | 57% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Nathan Hayes NDSU76 ▲3 overall · Senior
Points added per play0.375
Completion67.0%
TD–INT7-2
Pass attempts, median game23
Pass yards, median game210
Rush yards, median game14
Games this season4
Team throws per game24.2
Liam Szarka AF82 overall · Junior
Points added per play0.366
Completion48.1%
TD–INT1-2
Pass attempts, median game10
Pass yards, median game92
Rush yards, median game88
Games this season3
Team throws per game11.3
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| NDSU away | 2-2 | 50% | +3.8 | 1-3 | -2.8 |
| AF home | 1-2 | 33% | -1.2 | 2-1 | +6.2 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
No 4+ streak in any split for either side.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
Built when the game's bundle is (Falcon Stadium).
Who is out (reported)
No news read for this game yet.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| NDSU | B. Kpeenu RB | questionable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Kpeenu is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play Saturday against the Wyoming. |
| NDSU | C. LeGrant RB | questionable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | LeGrant is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play Saturday against the Wyoming. |
| NDSU | B. Walton WR | out Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Walton is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for recovery. |
| NDSU | K. Schlichting WR | out Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Schlichting is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for recovery. |
| NDSU | M. Mitchell RB | questionable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Mitchell is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play Saturday against Wyoming, 3rd October. |
| NDSU | N. Nelson TE | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 20 | Nelson is managing with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to established if he will face Cowboys on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| NDSU | J. Harvey RB | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 20 | Harvey is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to established if he will face Cowboys on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| NDSU | H. Nelson QB | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 20 | Nelson is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he face Cowboys on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| NDSU | D. Schlosser WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 20 | Schlosser is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he face Cowboys on Saturday, October 03rd. |
| NDSU | C. Danner TE | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 20 | Danner is managing with an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will face Cowboys on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| NDSU | B. Toliver RB | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 20 | Toliver is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will face Cowboys on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| AF | J. Dawson WR | out Undisclosed | Fri, Sep 25 | Dawson has been out of the lineup due to undisclosed injury, and he will be not available against Nevada on Saturday, September 26th. |