Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). MEM wins about 54% of the time at a number like ours.
MEM
Games
4
Plays per game
63.5
Drives per game
11.0
SP+
2.3 (63rd, offence 33rd, defence 97th)
Returning production
6% (pass 2%, rush 0%, receiving 11%)
UNLV
Games
4
Plays per game
70.2
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
-2.4 (78th, offence 75th, defence 89th)
Returning production
15% (pass 4%, rush 31%, receiving 14%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
MEM
UNLV
pass rate, all downs
43%107th
47%77th
pass rate, standard downs
37%106th
40%84th
pass rate, 1st down
41%85th
38%100th
no-huddle share
83%41st
36%94th
pass rate, passing downs
59%93rd
63%71st
pass rate, red zone
44%37th
37%74th
seconds per play (own drives)
25.9124th
27.299th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
MEM offence
MEM offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.262
254
36 of 138
success rate
0.472
254
46 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.370
254
21 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.182
254
45 of 138
rush: success rate
0.458
254
64 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.008
254
53 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.545
254
12 of 138
pass: success rate
0.514
254
24 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.828
254
16 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.516
254
46 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.353
254
46 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.464
254
24 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.148
254
45 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
254
67 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.609
254
32 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.126
254
42 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.067
254
25 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.059
254
82 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
76.900
254
1 of 138
UNLV offence
UNLV offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.053
281
107 of 138
success rate
0.384
281
118 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.219
281
73 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.061
281
89 of 138
rush: success rate
0.397
281
106 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.908
281
83 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.135
281
97 of 138
pass: success rate
0.389
281
102 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.610
281
53 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.456
281
104 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.227
281
127 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.219
281
56 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.130
281
25 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
281
108 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.955
281
123 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.157
281
91 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.096
281
89 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.060
281
83 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.600
281
40 of 138
MEM defence
MEM defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.180
275
117 of 138
success rate
0.418
275
89 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.400
275
124 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.290
275
134 of 138
rush: success rate
0.463
275
117 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.104
275
120 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.115
275
64 of 138
pass: success rate
0.388
275
63 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.709
275
111 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.503
275
113 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.260
275
48 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.389
275
127 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.127
275
11 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.842
275
121 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.600
275
85 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.149
275
47 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.091
275
58 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.058
275
60 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.600
275
101 of 138
UNLV defence
UNLV defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.076
267
76 of 138
success rate
0.404
267
76 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.154
267
43 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.124
267
106 of 138
rush: success rate
0.477
267
127 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.747
267
23 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.118
267
66 of 138
pass: success rate
0.351
267
29 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.696
267
110 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.466
267
84 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.286
267
79 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.606
267
138 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.133
267
13 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.833
267
117 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.478
267
77 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.161
267
70 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.071
267
20 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.090
267
128 of 138
opponent average starting field position
74.700
267
115 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs