Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). OSU wins about 89% of the time at a number like ours.
MICH
Games
4
Plays per game
61.5
Drives per game
10.2
SP+
14.3 (22nd, offence 52nd, defence 9th)
Returning production
69% (pass 104%, rush 59%, receiving 60%)
OSU
Games
4
Plays per game
67.8
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
28.8 (2nd, offence 1st, defence 2nd)
Returning production
68% (pass 94%, rush 55%, receiving 50%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
MICH
OSU
pass rate, all downs
42%115th
51%44th
pass rate, standard downs
35%115th
43%59th
pass rate, 1st down
35%111th
44%64th
no-huddle share
24%105th
10%121st
pass rate, red zone
27%120th
39%64th
pass rate, passing downs
61%85th
79%7th
seconds per play (own drives)
29.657th
30.242nd
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
MICH offence
MICH offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.164
246
66 of 138
success rate
0.435
246
77 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.174
246
96 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.034
246
103 of 138
rush: success rate
0.401
246
103 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.781
246
118 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.433
246
26 of 138
pass: success rate
0.495
246
32 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.634
246
51 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.449
246
110 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.397
246
19 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.170
246
64 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.127
246
21 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
246
68 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.280
246
108 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.134
246
60 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.073
246
40 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.061
246
88 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
74.100
246
15 of 138
OSU offence
OSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.394
271
8 of 138
success rate
0.524
271
7 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.342
271
24 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.175
271
48 of 138
rush: success rate
0.450
271
68 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.024
271
44 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.663
271
3 of 138
pass: success rate
0.607
271
2 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.579
271
64 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.572
271
10 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.365
271
37 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.201
271
58 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.168
271
70 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.783
271
48 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.111
271
13 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.111
271
24 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.063
271
23 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.048
271
59 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
68.200
271
107 of 138
MICH defence
MICH defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.090
241
21 of 138
success rate
0.311
241
9 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.200
241
57 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.133
241
22 of 138
rush: success rate
0.314
241
16 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.728
241
21 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.064
241
16 of 138
pass: success rate
0.310
241
12 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.684
241
106 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.377
241
16 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.200
241
9 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.628
241
48 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.223
241
102 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.714
241
67 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.053
241
7 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.178
241
90 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.137
241
120 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.041
241
18 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.900
241
64 of 138
OSU defence
OSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.081
269
23 of 138
success rate
0.353
269
33 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.211
269
64 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.042
269
42 of 138
rush: success rate
0.435
269
100 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.945
269
80 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.137
269
7 of 138
pass: success rate
0.275
269
2 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.588
269
83 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.398
269
28 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.282
269
71 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.791
269
62 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.194
269
69 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
269
49 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.778
269
33 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.208
269
125 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.104
269
78 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.104
269
135 of 138
opponent average starting field position
75.700
269
128 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs