Betting
Spread
MICH favouredMarket OSU −13.5Ours OSU −19.6
OSU favouredgap 6.1 toward OSU
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| MICH away | +13.5 | 16.5 | +425 | 18.3% | — |
| OSU home | -13.5 | 30.0 | -575 | 81.7% | — |
| Total | 46.5 | |
The closing line: this game was played before live prices were being collected.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| MICH away | +19.5 | 13.5 | 10.3% | +6.0 |
| OSU home | -19.5 | 33.0 | 89.7% | -6.0 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
Nothing to show for this game.
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | MICH | OSU |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | +4.432nd | +12.81st |
| Defence (cards) | +3.57th | +4.33rd |
| Card team rating | +7.919th | +17.01st |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | +14.322nd | +28.82nd |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | +0.719th | +1.43rd |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | +1.118th | +2.23rd |
| Card line | OSU -19.6 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 69% | 68% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Bryce Underwood MICH83 overall · Sophomore
Points added per play0.274
Completion62.0%
TD–INT5-2
Pass attempts, median game24
Pass yards, median game197
Rush yards, median game42
Games this season4
Team throws per game23.5
Julian Sayin OSU94 overall · Junior
Points added per play0.628
Completion72.2%
TD–INT10-1
Pass attempts, median game29
Pass yards, median game299
Rush yards, median game-7
Games this season4
Team throws per game33.2
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| MICH away | 2-2 | 50% | -4.8 | 1-3 | -5.5 |
| OSU home | 3-1 | 75% | +1.3 | 3-1 | +2.8 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
| Team | Split | Streak (4+), and what happened next in 8,097 games |
|---|
| MICH | underdog | gone under 6 straight — next game went over 52.6% of the time (1586 cases) |
| MICH | away underdog | gone under 4 straight — next game went over 51.1% of the time (6939 cases) |
| OSU | favourite of 7+ | won 13 straight — next game covered 49.1% of the time (3632 cases) |
Streak picker (total): bets the over — MICH has gone under 6 straight as underdog.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
Built when the game's bundle is (Ohio Stadium).
Who is out (reported)
No news read for this game yet.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| MICH | A. Marsh WR | questionable Undisclosed | Wed, Sep 30 | Marsh is dealing with a undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be established if he will be active against Minnesota on Saturday. |
| MICH | J. Daley DL | questionable Lower Body | Mon, Sep 28 | Daley is dealing with a lower body injury, and it is unclear if he will suit up against the Minnesota on Tuesday. |
| MICH | A. Sprague OG | out Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Sprague is sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and is not expected to play against the Hawkeyes on Saturday. |
| MICH | L. Forbes WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sun, Sep 20 | Forbes is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face Iowa on Saturday. |
| MICH | H. Hansen TE | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 12 | Hansen is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face UTEP on Saturday, September 19th. |
| OSU | B. Jackson RB | questionable Shoulder | Mon, Sep 28 | Jackson is dealing with an Shoulder injury, and it has yet to be established if he will be active against Iowa on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| OSU | K. Parker WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Parker is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Iowa on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| OSU | L. Bey RB | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Bey is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to be determined if he will face Iowa on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| OSU | Z. Grady DL | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Grady is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be established if he will be active against Iowa on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| OSU | A. Valerio-Hudson WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Valerio-Hudson has been out of the lineup due to undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be established if he will be active against Iowa on Saturday, October 3rd. |