Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). NU wins about 64% of the time at a number like ours.
RUTG
Games
4
Plays per game
68.5
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
-1.6 (75th, offence 42nd, defence 112th)
Returning production
44% (pass 10%, rush 93%, receiving 55%)
NU
Games
3
Plays per game
62.7
Drives per game
11.0
SP+
7.3 (50th, offence 59th, defence 34th)
Returning production
89% (pass 94%, rush 88%, receiving 86%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
RUTG
NU
pass rate, all downs
50%58th
45%92nd
pass rate, standard downs
42%62nd
44%45th
pass rate, 1st down
52%16th
49%23rd
no-huddle share
97%8th
11%120th
pass rate, passing downs
69%41st
47%132nd
pass rate, red zone
40%61st
48%24th
seconds per play (own drives)
30.145th
30.826th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
RUTG offence
RUTG offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.135
274
77 of 138
success rate
0.482
274
37 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.301
274
40 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.024
274
106 of 138
rush: success rate
0.489
274
34 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.766
274
123 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.334
274
49 of 138
pass: success rate
0.477
274
45 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.861
274
12 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.508
274
52 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.418
274
12 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.133
274
69 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.161
274
61 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.700
274
94 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.963
274
67 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.146
274
76 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.062
274
22 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.084
274
129 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.000
274
99 of 138
NU offence
NU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.304
188
21 of 138
success rate
0.463
188
49 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.294
188
45 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.156
188
54 of 138
rush: success rate
0.410
188
98 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.978
188
65 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.540
188
13 of 138
pass: success rate
0.537
188
13 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.649
188
46 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.485
188
78 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.411
188
14 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.835
188
104 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.190
188
93 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.818
188
29 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.111
188
12 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.133
188
56 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.112
188
117 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.021
188
4 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
72.400
188
41 of 138
RUTG defence
RUTG defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.149
241
101 of 138
success rate
0.436
241
103 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.202
241
58 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.117
241
103 of 138
rush: success rate
0.464
241
120 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.900
241
65 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.307
241
114 of 138
pass: success rate
0.415
241
83 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.589
241
85 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.497
241
110 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.297
241
87 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.002
241
93 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.200
241
77 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
241
86 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.652
241
90 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.137
241
37 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.100
241
73 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.037
241
12 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.000
241
34 of 138
NU defence
NU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.083
222
80 of 138
success rate
0.441
222
106 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.120
222
32 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.112
222
100 of 138
rush: success rate
0.472
222
124 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.868
222
46 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.035
222
38 of 138
pass: success rate
0.405
222
74 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.406
222
33 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.515
222
123 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.228
222
27 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.429
222
131 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.142
222
17 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.591
222
22 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.421
222
17 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.162
222
72 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.063
222
7 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.099
222
131 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.000
222
67 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs