Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). IU wins about 93% of the time at a number like ours.
IU
Games
4
Plays per game
61.8
Drives per game
10.5
SP+
26.9 (4th, offence 5th, defence 7th)
Returning production
17% (pass 2%, rush 25%, receiving 24%)
RUTG
Games
4
Plays per game
68.5
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
-1.6 (75th, offence 42nd, defence 112th)
Returning production
44% (pass 10%, rush 93%, receiving 55%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
IU
RUTG
pass rate, all downs
38%128th
50%58th
pass rate, standard downs
31%126th
42%62nd
pass rate, 1st down
30%126th
52%16th
no-huddle share
3%135th
97%8th
pass rate, passing downs
55%114th
69%41st
pass rate, red zone
17%133rd
40%61st
seconds per play (own drives)
33.06th
30.145th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
IU offence
IU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.421
247
5 of 138
success rate
0.510
247
18 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.382
247
20 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.256
247
22 of 138
rush: success rate
0.474
247
43 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.022
247
46 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.686
247
2 of 138
pass: success rate
0.573
247
6 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.877
247
10 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.558
247
19 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.379
247
26 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.507
247
19 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.118
247
13 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.720
247
85 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.241
247
7 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.109
247
22 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.081
247
54 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.028
247
11 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
66.900
247
121 of 138
RUTG offence
RUTG offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.135
274
77 of 138
success rate
0.482
274
37 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.301
274
40 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.024
274
106 of 138
rush: success rate
0.489
274
34 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.766
274
123 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.334
274
49 of 138
pass: success rate
0.477
274
45 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.861
274
12 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.508
274
52 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.418
274
12 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.133
274
69 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.161
274
61 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.700
274
94 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.963
274
67 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.146
274
76 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.062
274
22 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.084
274
129 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.000
274
99 of 138
IU defence
IU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.107
237
17 of 138
success rate
0.300
237
3 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.421
237
129 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.134
237
21 of 138
rush: success rate
0.264
237
3 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.164
237
128 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.035
237
21 of 138
pass: success rate
0.356
237
31 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.598
237
89 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.329
237
2 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.250
237
41 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.262
237
12 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.236
237
112 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.500
237
7 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.857
237
38 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.198
237
115 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.169
237
132 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.030
237
3 of 138
opponent average starting field position
74.800
237
118 of 138
RUTG defence
RUTG defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.149
241
101 of 138
success rate
0.436
241
103 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.202
241
58 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.117
241
103 of 138
rush: success rate
0.464
241
120 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.900
241
65 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.307
241
114 of 138
pass: success rate
0.415
241
83 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.589
241
85 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.497
241
110 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.297
241
87 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.002
241
93 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.200
241
77 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
241
86 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.652
241
90 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.137
241
37 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.100
241
73 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.037
241
12 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.000
241
34 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs