Betting
Spread
IU favouredMarket IU −24.5Ours IU −23.9
RUTG favouredgap 0.6 toward RUTG
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| IU away | -24.5 | 40.5 | -2400 | 92.6% | 95% |
| RUTG home | +24.5 | 16.0 | +1200 | 7.4% | 6% |
| Total | 56.5 | |
IU -24.5 when first seen, now IU -24.5 · total 54.5 then, 56.5 now. Over -112 / under -108 · DraftKings, 2026-10-02 05:30 UTC.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| IU away | -24.0 | 40.2 | 93.8% | +0.5 |
| RUTG home | +24.0 | 16.3 | 6.2% | -0.5 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| IU away | -27.0 | 41.1 | 99.0% | -2.5 |
| RUTG home | +27.0 | 14.1 | 1.0% | +2.5 |
| Total | 55.3 | | | -1.2 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | IU | RUTG |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | +9.38th | -1.575th |
| Defence (cards) | +3.64th | +0.162nd |
| Card team rating | +12.86th | -1.369th |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | +26.94th | -1.675th |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | +1.26th | -0.389th |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | +1.94th | -0.379th |
| Card line | RUTG +23.9 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 17% | 44% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Josh Hoover IU88 overall · Senior
Points added per play0.756
Completion70.0%
TD–INT11-0
Pass attempts, median game20
Pass yards, median game216
Rush yards, median game2
Games this season4
Team throws per game21.5
Dylan Lonergan RUTG75 ▼2 overall · Senior
Points added per play0.406
Completion56.1%
TD–INT7-5
Pass attempts, median game29
Pass yards, median game242
Rush yards, median game13
Games this season3
Team throws per game31.8
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| IU away | 0-4 | 0% | -6.8 | 2-2 | -5.3 |
| RUTG home | 2-2 | 50% | -6.8 | 3-1 | +5.8 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
| Team | Split | Streak (4+), and what happened next in 8,097 games |
|---|
| IU | all | won 16 straight — next game covered 49.1% of the time (3632 cases) |
| IU | favourite | won 23 straight — next game covered 49.1% of the time (3632 cases) |
| IU | favourite of 7+ | won 39 straight — next game covered 49.1% of the time (3632 cases) |
| IU | away | won 6 straight — next game covered 49.8% of the time (9369 cases) |
| IU | away favourite | won 13 straight — next game covered 49.1% of the time (3632 cases) |
| IU | division | won 12 straight — next game covered 49.1% of the time (3632 cases) |
| IU | away division | won 6 straight — next game covered 49.8% of the time (9369 cases) |
| RUTG | all | lost 5 straight — next game covered 50.6% of the time (10094 cases) |
| RUTG | underdog | lost 5 straight — next game covered 50.6% of the time (10094 cases) |
| RUTG | home underdog | lost 4 straight — next game covered 50.6% of the time (14163 cases) |
| RUTG | home underdog | gone over 8 straight — next game went over 47.9% of the time (219 cases) |
Streak picker (total): bets the under — RUTG has gone over 8 straight as home underdog.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
Built when the game's bundle is (SHI Stadium).
Who is out (reported)
Turbo Richard IU — questionable (ESPN, 2026-09-26)
Left Northwestern game with right lower-leg injury but sources said he likely avoided serious injury and should return soon; no confirmation of playing status by 2026-10-01.
Stephen Daley IU — returning (Court order, 2026-09-24)
Defensive lineman granted preliminary injunction, making him eligible to play again.
Kellan Wyatt IU — returning (Court order, 2026-09-24)
Defensive lineman granted preliminary injunction, making him eligible to play again.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| IU | L. Beebe Jr. RB | questionable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Beebe Jr. is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will return |
| IU | T. Richard RB | probable Ankle | Wed, Sep 30 | Richard is dealing with an ankle injury, but he is expected to play on Saturday against the Rutgers. |
| IU | L. Bond WR | out Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Bond is nursing an undisclosed injury, and he is not projected to play against W. Kentucky on Saturday, September 19th. |
| RUTG | A. Raymond RB | questionable Undisclosed | Wed, Sep 30 | Raymond is dealing with undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will be available Saturday against the Indiana. |
| RUTG | D. Kaliakmanis WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Kaliakmanis is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and he is not projected to suit up against USC on Sunday. |
| RUTG | K. Levy CB | out Undisclosed | Thu, Sep 17 | Levy is battling with an undisclsoed injury, and he will be out of the lineup against USC on Saturday. |
| RUTG | F. Toure WR | questionable Knee | Fri, Sep 11 | Toure is nursing with a knee injury, and it is unknown if he will play against the USC on Saturday, September 19th. |
Reported, not official: college has no injury report. The first list is the news reader's, with its sources; the table is Covers.com's tags.