Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). MICH wins about 63% of the time at a number like ours.
MICH
Games
4
Plays per game
61.5
Drives per game
10.2
SP+
14.3 (22nd, offence 52nd, defence 9th)
Returning production
69% (pass 104%, rush 59%, receiving 60%)
MINN
Games
4
Plays per game
66.5
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
6.5 (52nd, offence 62nd, defence 34th)
Returning production
65% (pass 97%, rush 1000%, receiving 45%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
MICH
MINN
pass rate, all downs
42%115th
55%22nd
pass rate, standard downs
35%115th
49%15th
pass rate, 1st down
35%111th
54%8th
no-huddle share
24%105th
18%114th
pass rate, red zone
27%120th
66%3rd
pass rate, passing downs
61%85th
73%27th
seconds per play (own drives)
29.657th
31.219th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
MICH offence
MICH offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.164
246
66 of 138
success rate
0.435
246
77 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.174
246
96 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.034
246
103 of 138
rush: success rate
0.401
246
103 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.781
246
118 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.433
246
26 of 138
pass: success rate
0.495
246
32 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.634
246
51 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.449
246
110 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.397
246
19 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.170
246
64 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.127
246
21 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
246
68 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.280
246
108 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.134
246
60 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.073
246
40 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.061
246
88 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
74.100
246
15 of 138
MINN offence
MINN offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.129
266
81 of 138
success rate
0.470
266
47 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.092
266
126 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.023
266
107 of 138
rush: success rate
0.474
266
44 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.747
266
126 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.273
266
64 of 138
pass: success rate
0.479
266
44 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.355
266
120 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.560
266
18 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.233
266
124 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.498
266
134 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.241
266
132 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.640
266
111 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.500
266
94 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.143
266
72 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.094
266
85 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.049
266
61 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
63.600
266
135 of 138
MICH defence
MICH defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.090
241
21 of 138
success rate
0.311
241
9 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.200
241
57 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.133
241
22 of 138
rush: success rate
0.314
241
16 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.728
241
21 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.064
241
16 of 138
pass: success rate
0.310
241
12 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.684
241
106 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.377
241
16 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.200
241
9 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.628
241
48 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.223
241
102 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.714
241
67 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.053
241
7 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.178
241
90 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.137
241
120 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.041
241
18 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.900
241
64 of 138
MINN defence
MINN defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.041
230
72 of 138
success rate
0.370
230
52 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.205
230
61 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.074
230
86 of 138
rush: success rate
0.387
230
57 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.870
230
47 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.180
230
82 of 138
pass: success rate
0.369
230
45 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.543
230
68 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.420
230
46 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.275
230
62 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.680
230
54 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.270
230
131 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.571
230
17 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.471
230
127 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.237
230
133 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.172
230
135 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.065
230
83 of 138
opponent average starting field position
78.800
230
138 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs