Michigan · away
at
MICH -5.5
Saturday 2026-10-03 12:00 · Huntington Bank Stadium
Minnesota · home
GameNewsMismatchesTeamPersonnelBetting

The trenches

Pass rushsack ratestopped behind the linefacessacks allowedpairing
MINN pass rush9.3% 9716th14.5% 1796thfaces MICH4.0% 10050th6.6% ~2.2 sacks
MICH pass rush9.8% 11212th12.6% 23015thfaces MINN2.7% 11120th6.3% ~2.1 sacks

sacks from CFBD play-by-play; college has no charted pressure, and these rates are not opponent-adjusted Measured on 7,926 team-games 2022–25: a college line's sacks-allowed rate carries +0.27 into its next game and a defence's sack rate only +0.10 — the line is most of this. The pairing predicts the game's sack rate +0.27, yards per dropback −0.16 and points added per play −0.15. Heaviest quarter of pairings against lightest: 7.8% vs 4.2% sack rate, 6.1 vs 7.2 yards per dropback.

MICH with the ball

MICH offence vs MINN defenceMICH offenceMINN defencerank gap
points added per play0.16466th0.04172nd+6
success rate0.43577th0.37052nd-25
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)1.17496th1.20561st-35
rush: points added per play0.034103rd0.07486th-17
rush: success rate0.401103rd0.38757th-46
rush: explosiveness0.781118th0.87047th-71
pass: points added per play0.43326th0.18082nd+56
pass: success rate0.49532nd0.36945th+13
pass: explosiveness1.63451st1.54368th+17
standard downs: success rate0.449110th0.42046th-64
passing downs: success rate0.39719th0.27562nd+43
line yards per rush (the O-line)3.17064th2.68054th-10
rushes stopped at or behind the line0.12721st0.270131st+110
short-yardage conversion rate0.75068th0.57117th-51
points per trip inside the 403.280108th4.471127th+19
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)0.13460th0.237133rd+73
havoc allowed by the front seven0.07340th0.172135th+95
havoc allowed by the secondary0.06188th0.06583rd-5
average starting field position (yards from own goal)74.10015th——

MINN with the ball

MINN offence vs MICH defenceMINN offenceMICH defencerank gap
points added per play0.12981st-0.09021st-60
success rate0.47047th0.3119th-38
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)1.092126th1.20057th-69
rush: points added per play0.023107th-0.13322nd-85
rush: success rate0.47444th0.31416th-28
rush: explosiveness0.747126th0.72821st-105
pass: points added per play0.27364th-0.06416th-48
pass: success rate0.47944th0.31012th-32
pass: explosiveness1.355120th1.684106th-14
standard downs: success rate0.56018th0.37716th-2
passing downs: success rate0.233124th0.2009th-115
line yards per rush (the O-line)2.498134th2.62848th-86
rushes stopped at or behind the line0.241132nd0.223102nd-30
short-yardage conversion rate0.640111th0.71467th-44
points per trip inside the 403.50094th2.0537th-87
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)0.14372nd0.17890th+18
havoc allowed by the front seven0.09485th0.137120th+35
havoc allowed by the secondary0.04961st0.04118th-43
average starting field position (yards from own goal)63.600135th——

Rank gap = the defence's FBS rank minus the offence's on the same measure: +60 means the offence ranks 60 places better than the defence it faces. Unit against unit only — college has no player charting to name a matchup by.