Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). ILL wins about 80% of the time at a number like ours.
PUR
Games
4
Plays per game
71.5
Drives per game
10.8
SP+
-6.4 (94th, offence 57th, defence 120th)
Returning production
48% (pass 97%, rush 61%, receiving 22%)
ILL
Games
4
Plays per game
61.5
Drives per game
9.5
SP+
8.5 (41st, offence 24th, defence 69th)
Returning production
21% (pass 3%, rush 34%, receiving 31%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
PUR
ILL
pass rate, all downs
56%20th
52%37th
pass rate, standard downs
48%19th
44%46th
pass rate, 1st down
49%27th
44%58th
no-huddle share
44%88th
19%112th
pass rate, passing downs
76%14th
75%18th
pass rate, red zone
51%17th
61%4th
seconds per play (own drives)
29.463rd
30.531st
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
PUR offence
PUR offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.237
286
45 of 138
success rate
0.465
286
48 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.198
286
86 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.083
286
84 of 138
rush: success rate
0.429
286
88 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.883
286
88 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.399
286
30 of 138
pass: success rate
0.506
286
28 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.408
286
109 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.507
286
54 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.354
286
44 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.027
286
85 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.159
286
57 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.789
286
46 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.630
286
86 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.133
286
57 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.101
286
99 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.031
286
16 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.800
286
18 of 138
ILL offence
ILL offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.284
246
28 of 138
success rate
0.516
246
11 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.273
246
51 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.261
246
20 of 138
rush: success rate
0.518
246
16 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.022
246
45 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.323
246
51 of 138
pass: success rate
0.524
246
18 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.475
246
90 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.564
246
15 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.385
246
24 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.451
246
26 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.114
246
11 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
246
103 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.037
246
63 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.114
246
31 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.045
246
7 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.069
246
109 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.600
246
48 of 138
PUR defence
PUR defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.351
258
138 of 138
success rate
0.500
258
136 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.366
258
114 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.300
258
135 of 138
rush: success rate
0.518
258
136 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.054
258
107 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.412
258
126 of 138
pass: success rate
0.469
258
119 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.827
258
125 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.536
258
132 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.413
258
135 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.319
258
124 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.151
258
26 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.762
258
93 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
5.200
258
136 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.140
258
38 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.081
258
38 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.058
258
61 of 138
opponent average starting field position
73.300
258
98 of 138
ILL defence
ILL defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.193
274
120 of 138
success rate
0.445
274
112 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.269
274
88 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.123
274
105 of 138
rush: success rate
0.414
274
80 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.039
274
103 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.279
274
107 of 138
pass: success rate
0.489
274
127 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.478
274
52 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.490
274
102 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.329
274
111 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.766
274
60 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.207
274
83 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.783
274
103 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.864
274
105 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.131
274
28 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.069
274
15 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.062
274
70 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.600
274
59 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs