Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). MICH wins about 91% of the time at a number like ours.
WMU
Games
4
Plays per game
61.2
Drives per game
10.8
SP+
-7.2 (96th, offence 113th, defence 72nd)
Returning production
100% (pass 100%, rush 100%, receiving 100%)
MICH
Games
4
Plays per game
61.5
Drives per game
10.2
SP+
14.3 (22nd, offence 52nd, defence 9th)
Returning production
69% (pass 104%, rush 59%, receiving 60%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
WMU
MICH
pass rate, all downs
43%109th
42%115th
pass rate, standard downs
39%89th
35%115th
pass rate, 1st down
46%49th
35%111th
no-huddle share
19%113th
24%105th
pass rate, passing downs
50%128th
61%85th
pass rate, red zone
18%131st
27%120th
seconds per play (own drives)
33.63rd
29.657th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
WMU offence
WMU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.093
245
97 of 138
success rate
0.400
245
108 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.167
245
99 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.147
245
63 of 138
rush: success rate
0.413
245
97 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.979
245
64 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.006
245
126 of 138
pass: success rate
0.380
245
111 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.426
245
106 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.450
245
108 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.306
245
75 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.870
245
101 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.167
245
67 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.737
245
78 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.364
245
42 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.131
245
49 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.094
245
86 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.037
245
23 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.600
245
92 of 138
MICH offence
MICH offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.164
246
66 of 138
success rate
0.435
246
77 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.174
246
96 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.034
246
103 of 138
rush: success rate
0.401
246
103 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.781
246
118 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.433
246
26 of 138
pass: success rate
0.495
246
32 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.634
246
51 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.449
246
110 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.397
246
19 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.170
246
64 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.127
246
21 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
246
68 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.280
246
108 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.134
246
60 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.073
246
40 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.061
246
88 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
74.100
246
15 of 138
WMU defence
WMU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.099
269
86 of 138
success rate
0.465
269
125 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.025
269
10 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.022
269
66 of 138
rush: success rate
0.450
269
108 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.720
269
18 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.173
269
81 of 138
pass: success rate
0.464
269
115 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.440
269
42 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.477
269
91 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.432
269
137 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.051
269
103 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.172
269
41 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.720
269
70 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.650
269
89 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.108
269
4 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.056
269
3 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.052
269
45 of 138
opponent average starting field position
76.300
269
132 of 138
MICH defence
MICH defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.090
241
21 of 138
success rate
0.311
241
9 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.200
241
57 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.133
241
22 of 138
rush: success rate
0.314
241
16 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.728
241
21 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.064
241
16 of 138
pass: success rate
0.310
241
12 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.684
241
106 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.377
241
16 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.200
241
9 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.628
241
48 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.223
241
102 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.714
241
67 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.053
241
7 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.178
241
90 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.137
241
120 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.041
241
18 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.900
241
64 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs