Line has moved -1.0 since we first saw it (MIA -17.5 to MIA -16.5).
Betting
Spread
MIA favouredMarket MIA −16.5Ours MIA −20.7
CLEM favouredgap 4.2 toward MIA
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| MIA away | -16.5 | 32.0 | -800 | 85.3% | 88% |
| CLEM home | +16.5 | 15.5 | +550 | 14.8% | 13% |
| Total | 47.5 | |
MIA -17.5 when first seen, now MIA -16.5 · total 50.5 then, 47.5 now. Over -118 / under -102 · DraftKings, 2026-10-02 06:00 UTC.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| MIA away | -20.5 | 34.1 | 90.4% | -4.0 |
| CLEM home | +20.5 | 13.4 | 9.6% | +4.0 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| MIA away | -17.0 | 32.4 | 88.3% | -0.5 |
| CLEM home | +17.0 | 15.2 | 11.7% | +0.5 |
| Total | 47.6 | | | +0.1 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | MIA | CLEM |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | +10.93rd | -1.676th |
| Defence (cards) | +2.516th | +2.615th |
| Card team rating | +13.45th | +1.054th |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | +25.75th | +4.954th |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | +1.17th | +0.253rd |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | +1.95th | +0.354th |
| Card line | CLEM +20.7 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 37% | 41% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Darian Mensah MIA93 ▲2 overall · Junior
Points added per play0.861
Completion88.7%
TD–INT14-0
Pass attempts, median game29
Pass yards, median game295
Rush yards, median game13
Games this season4
Team throws per game33.0
Tait Reynolds CLEM74 overall · Freshman
Points added per play0.002
Completion63.9%
TD–INT1-2
Pass attempts, median game24
Pass yards, median game143
Rush yards, median game27
Games this season4
Team throws per game26.5
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| MIA away | 3-1 | 75% | +6.3 | 3-1 | +5.5 |
| CLEM home | 2-2 | 50% | -5.0 | 2-2 | -7.0 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
| Team | Split | Streak (4+), and what happened next in 8,097 games |
|---|
| MIA | all | won 7 straight — next game covered 49.8% of the time (9369 cases) |
| MIA | away | won 4 straight — next game covered 50.4% of the time (16696 cases) |
| MIA | favourite | won 7 straight — next game covered 49.8% of the time (9369 cases) |
| MIA | away favourite | won 4 straight — next game covered 50.4% of the time (16696 cases) |
| MIA | favourite of 7+ | won 6 straight — next game covered 49.8% of the time (9369 cases) |
| MIA | division | won 6 straight — next game covered 49.8% of the time (9369 cases) |
| MIA | away division | won 4 straight — next game covered 50.4% of the time (16696 cases) |
| CLEM | division | covered 4 straight — next game covered 49.4% of the time (6312 cases) |
| CLEM | division | won 4 straight — next game covered 50.4% of the time (16696 cases) |
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
Built when the game's bundle is (Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC)).
Who is out (reported)
Nothing in the news for either side. College publishes no official injury report, so absence of news is not a clean bill of health.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| MIA | O. Ruskavich TE | out Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Ruskavich is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he is not expected to face against Clemson on Saturday. |
| MIA | M. Fletcher Jr. RB | questionable Upper Body | Sun, Sep 27 | Fletcher Jr is hampered by upper body injury, and it has yet to be established if he will be active against Clemson on Saturday, October 3th. |
| MIA | J. Moore WR | out Upper Body | Mon, Sep 21 | Moore is battling with an upper body injury, and he will be idle for the remainder of the season. |
| MIA | C. Brown RB | out Lower Body | Mon, Sep 21 | Brown is dealing with a lower body injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season. |
| MIA | L. Gilbert TE | out Undisclosed | Tue, Aug 11 | Gilbert has been out of commission due to an undisclosed injury, and he will be idle for the remainder of the season |
| CLEM | C. Vizzina QB | questionable Elbow | Wed, Sep 30 | Vizzina is dealing with an elbow injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against the Hurricanes on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| CLEM | D. Eziomume RB | out Leg | Mon, Sep 28 | Eziomume is liad up with a leg injury, and he will be idle for the remainder of the season. |
| CLEM | C. Gipson CB | out Undisclosed | Fri, Sep 25 | Gipson is dealing with an Undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against California on Friday, September 25th. |
| CLEM | J. Haynes RB | out Undisclosed | Thu, Sep 24 | Haynes is sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and is not expected to play against the California on Friday. |
| CLEM | K. McGriff WR | out Undisclosed | Thu, Sep 17 | McGriff is battling with an undisclsoed injury, and it is not anticipated that he will suit up against North Carolina on Saturday. |
| CLEM | C. Turner WR | out Personal | Fri, Aug 21 | Turner is dealing with some personal reasons, and he is without a definitive timetable for return. |
| CLEM | P. Streko RB | out Undisclosed | Tue, Aug 11 | Streko has been out of commission due to an undisclosed injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season. |