Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). LOU wins about 69% of the time at a number like ours.
LOU
Games
4
Plays per game
67.5
Drives per game
12.8
SP+
9.9 (36th, offence 19th, defence 66th)
Returning production
35% (pass 0%, rush 85%, receiving 18%)
NCSU
Games
4
Plays per game
70.2
Drives per game
12.2
SP+
3.4 (58th, offence 37th, defence 84th)
Returning production
60% (pass 93%, rush 101%, receiving 26%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
LOU
NCSU
pass rate, all downs
46%86th
47%80th
pass rate, standard downs
39%91st
37%110th
pass rate, 1st down
41%87th
41%86th
no-huddle share
31%101st
44%87th
pass rate, passing downs
68%51st
71%32nd
pass rate, red zone
36%82nd
39%66th
seconds per play (own drives)
28.083rd
28.971st
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
LOU offence
LOU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.344
270
12 of 138
success rate
0.500
270
24 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.353
270
23 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.203
270
39 of 138
rush: success rate
0.486
270
35 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.034
270
43 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.487
270
18 of 138
pass: success rate
0.516
270
23 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.663
270
43 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.563
270
16 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.324
270
64 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.809
270
111 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.194
270
96 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.722
270
84 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.393
270
40 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.141
270
70 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.111
270
114 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.030
270
13 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.800
270
82 of 138
NCSU offence
NCSU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.221
281
54 of 138
success rate
0.488
281
33 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.209
281
77 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.215
281
36 of 138
rush: success rate
0.493
281
30 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.037
281
41 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.257
281
67 of 138
pass: success rate
0.484
281
39 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.406
281
110 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.548
281
30 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.341
281
51 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.295
281
41 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.149
281
47 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.840
281
21 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.679
281
25 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.157
281
88 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.093
281
82 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.064
281
95 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
70.900
281
64 of 138
LOU defence
LOU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.106
286
89 of 138
success rate
0.402
286
75 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.238
286
76 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.015
286
53 of 138
rush: success rate
0.430
286
92 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.710
286
15 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.378
286
124 of 138
pass: success rate
0.381
286
58 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.964
286
136 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.455
286
76 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.274
286
61 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.021
286
98 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.121
286
6 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.517
286
11 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.615
286
87 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.136
286
33 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.073
286
23 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.063
286
74 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.100
286
52 of 138
NCSU defence
NCSU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.120
243
93 of 138
success rate
0.399
243
74 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.250
243
82 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.067
243
84 of 138
rush: success rate
0.446
243
106 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.967
243
86 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.270
243
101 of 138
pass: success rate
0.366
243
42 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.643
243
99 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.456
243
77 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.264
243
54 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.821
243
66 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.190
243
61 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.762
243
90 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.591
243
84 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.152
243
54 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.070
243
17 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.082
243
118 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.500
243
58 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs