Line has moved -0.5 since we first saw it (GT -3.5 to GT -3).
Betting
Spread
GT favouredMarket GT −3Ours GT −1
STAN favouredgap 2 toward STAN
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| GT away | -3.0 | 25.8 | -155 | 58.3% | 58% |
| STAN home | +3.0 | 22.8 | +130 | 41.7% | 42% |
| Total | 48.5 | |
GT -3.5 when first seen, now GT -3 · total 48.5 then, 48.5 now. Over -105 / under -115 · DraftKings, 2026-09-27 02:30 UTC.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| GT away | -1.0 | 24.7 | 53.6% | +2.0 |
| STAN home | +1.0 | 23.8 | 46.4% | -2.0 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| GT away | -8.5 | 30.8 | 71.5% | -5.5 |
| STAN home | +8.5 | 22.4 | 28.5% | +5.5 |
| Total | 53.1 | | | +4.6 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | GT | STAN |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | -1.678th | -3.598th |
| Defence (cards) | -0.470th | -0.469th |
| Card team rating | -2.076th | -3.991st |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | -0.169th | -8.4102nd |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | -0.067th | -0.492nd |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | -0.068th | -0.6100th |
| Card line | STAN +1.0 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 13% | 21% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Alberto Mendoza GT78 ▲2 overall · Sophomore
Points added per play0.249
Completion68.3%
TD–INT6-3
Pass attempts, median game31
Pass yards, median game243
Rush yards, median game-11
Games this season4
Team throws per game31.0
Davis Warren STAN74 overall · Senior
Points added per play0.282
Completion58.0%
TD–INT5-0
Pass attempts, median game35
Pass yards, median game262
Rush yards, median game-1
Games this season4
Team throws per game37.0
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| GT away | 0-4 | 0% | -7.9 | 2-2 | -1.0 |
| STAN home | 2-2 | 50% | -4.4 | 3-1 | +5.8 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
No 4+ streak in any split for either side.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
| Venue | Stanford Stadium · grass · 60 ft |
| Forecast at kickoff | 61°F, wind 7 mph, rain 0.00 in |
| Rest | GT 7 days · STAN 7 days |
| Travel | GT 2123 miles, body clock 10:30pm at kickoff, -856 ft elevation |
Who is out (reported)
Jaylen Mbakwe GT — questionable (Georgia Tech reporting, 2026-09-13)
CB stretchered off against Tennessee after collision with teammate; released from hospital same day, but status for Stanford game unreported.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| GT | S. Jones DL | out Undisclosed | Thu, Sep 24 | Jones is out of commission due to an undisclosed injury, and is not expected to face the Stanford on Saturday. |
| GT | A. Hoffler DL | out Undisclosed | Thu, Sep 24 | Hoffler is sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and is not expected to face the Stanford on Saturday. |
| GT | E. Mackenny OG | out Undisclosed | Thu, Sep 24 | MacKenny is sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and is not expected to play against the Stanford on Saturday. |
| GT | S. Riley S | out Undisclosed | Thu, Sep 24 | Riley has been out of the lineup due to an undisclosed injury, and is not expected to be available against the Stanford on Saturday. |
| GT | J. Walker DL | out Undisclosed | Thu, Sep 24 | Walker is sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and is not expected to be active against the Stanford on Saturday. |
| GT | C. Jean-Noel WR | out Undisclosed | Thu, Sep 24 | Jean-Noel has been out of the lineup due to an undisclosed injury, and is not expected to be active against the Stanford on Saturday. |
| GT | M. Hosley RB | questionable Undisclosed | Thu, Sep 24 | Richardson is battling with a Undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be active against the Stanford on Saturday. |
| GT | K. Roche Jr. TE | probable Undisclosed | Thu, Sep 24 | Roche is dealing with a Undisclosed injury, but he is expected to suit up against the Wake Stanford on Saturday. |
| GT | D. Collins WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 12 | Plummer is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against Mercer on Saturday, September 19th. |
| STAN | N. Prongos OG | probable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Prongos is dealing with a Undisclosed injury, but he is expected to suit up against the Georgia Tech on Saturday, September 26th. |
| STAN | J. Galvan LB | out Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 19 | Galvan is sidelined with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for return. |
| STAN | L. Bironas K | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 5 | Bironas is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he is anticipated to play against Duke on September 19th. |
| STAN | D. Sharper WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 5 | Sharper is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Duke on September 19th. |
| STAN | C. Shaw WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 5 | Shaw is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Duke on September 19th. |
| STAN | A. Kilstrom OG | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 5 | Kilstrom is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Duke on September 19th. |
Reported, not official: college has no injury report. The first list is the news reader's, with its sources; the table is Covers.com's tags.