Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). CAL wins about 67% of the time at a number like ours.
CAL
Games
4
Plays per game
69.5
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
-3.2 (81st, offence 93rd, defence 69th)
Returning production
58% (pass 89%, rush 0%, receiving 43%)
SYR
Games
3
Plays per game
79.3
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
-1.2 (74th, offence 97th, defence 51st)
Returning production
35% (pass 83%, rush -19%, receiving 20%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
CAL
SYR
pass rate, all downs
57%13th
54%27th
pass rate, standard downs
47%29th
44%53rd
pass rate, 1st down
47%38th
49%30th
no-huddle share
35%95th
93%17th
pass rate, passing downs
78%8th
74%20th
pass rate, red zone
52%15th
47%27th
seconds per play (own drives)
27.987th
26.6108th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
CAL offence
CAL offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.007
278
120 of 138
success rate
0.403
278
102 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.193
278
88 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.056
278
123 of 138
rush: success rate
0.376
278
119 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.763
278
124 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.131
278
98 of 138
pass: success rate
0.429
278
77 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.474
278
92 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.459
278
101 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.290
278
91 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.819
278
108 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.205
278
109 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
278
102 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.720
278
127 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.169
278
107 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.094
278
83 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.076
278
120 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
73.700
278
22 of 138
SYR offence
SYR offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.038
238
113 of 138
success rate
0.399
238
109 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.330
238
27 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.143
238
64 of 138
rush: success rate
0.450
238
69 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.996
238
57 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.043
238
115 of 138
pass: success rate
0.372
238
115 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.712
238
32 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.443
238
113 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.312
238
72 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.851
238
102 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.220
238
121 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.800
238
40 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.538
238
92 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.126
238
43 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.084
238
60 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.042
238
40 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
67.200
238
119 of 138
CAL defence
CAL defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.014
268
56 of 138
success rate
0.369
268
49 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.341
268
109 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.217
268
129 of 138
rush: success rate
0.420
268
84 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.122
268
123 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.092
268
13 of 138
pass: success rate
0.320
268
15 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.644
268
100 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.431
268
56 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.255
268
45 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.160
268
110 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.145
268
18 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.889
268
130 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.615
268
25 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.131
268
27 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.063
268
5 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.067
268
89 of 138
opponent average starting field position
68.000
268
12 of 138
SYR defence
SYR defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.126
183
13 of 138
success rate
0.361
183
42 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.087
183
21 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.026
183
70 of 138
rush: success rate
0.433
183
96 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.926
183
75 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.251
183
1 of 138
pass: success rate
0.289
183
5 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.377
183
24 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.452
183
74 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.206
183
13 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.629
183
49 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.233
183
111 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
183
87 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.750
183
31 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.186
183
107 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.137
183
121 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.049
183
41 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.900
183
91 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs