Betting
Spread
CAL favouredMarket SYR −4Ours CAL −7.4
SYR favouredgap 11.4 toward CAL
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| CAL away | +4.0 | 26.3 | +164 | 36.3% | — |
| SYR home | -4.0 | 30.3 | -198 | 63.7% | — |
| Total | 56.5 | |
The closing line: this game was played before live prices were being collected.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| CAL away | -7.5 | 32.0 | 69.6% | -11.5 |
| SYR home | +7.5 | 24.5 | 30.4% | +11.5 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| CAL away | +1.0 | 23.5 | 47.6% | -3.0 |
| SYR home | -1.0 | 24.3 | 52.4% | +3.0 |
| Total | 47.8 | | | -8.7 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | CAL | SYR |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | +5.921st | -0.264th |
| Defence (cards) | +0.259th | +1.043rd |
| Card team rating | +6.129th | +0.857th |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | -3.281st | -1.274th |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | -0.279th | -0.386th |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | -0.377th | -0.378th |
| Card line | SYR +7.4 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 58% | 35% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele CAL86 ▲1 overall · Sophomore
Points added per play0.157
Completion64.2%
TD–INT7-4
Pass attempts, median game34
Pass yards, median game227
Rush yards, median game-6
Games this season4
Team throws per game38.5
Steve Angeli SYR80 ▼1 overall · Senior
Points added per play—
Completion—
TD–INT—
Pass attempts, median game—
Pass yards, median game—
Rush yards, median game—
Games this season0
Team throws per game38.7
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| CAL away | 1-3 | 25% | -9.9 | 1-3 | -7.5 |
| SYR home | 1-2 | 33% | +5.7 | 1-2 | -5.5 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
No 4+ streak in any split for either side.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
Built when the game's bundle is (JMA Wireless Dome).
Who is out (reported)
No news read for this game yet.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| CAL | C. Vargas RB | out Leg | Sat, Sep 26 | |
| CAL | R. Walker TE | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | |
| CAL | C. Boscia WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | |
| CAL | T. Rogers WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | |
| SYR | J. Johnson RB | questionable Hand | Fri, Sep 18 | Johnson is battling with an hand injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against UConn on Saturday, 03rd October. |
| SYR | N. Edwards WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 12 | Edwards is hampered with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be active against Pittsburgh on Thursday, September 17th. |
| SYR | T. Hill RB | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 12 | Hill is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Pittsburgh on Thursday, September 17th. |
| SYR | M. Outten WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 12 | Outten is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Pittsburgh on Thursday, September 17th. |