Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). RUTG wins about 64% of the time at a number like ours.
RUTG
Games
4
Plays per game
68.5
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
-1.6 (75th, offence 42nd, defence 112th)
Returning production
44% (pass 10%, rush 93%, receiving 55%)
BC
Games
4
Plays per game
65.5
Drives per game
12.0
SP+
-4.6 (90th, offence 106th, defence 65th)
Returning production
16% (pass 8%, rush -62%, receiving 23%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
RUTG
BC
pass rate, all downs
50%58th
46%87th
pass rate, standard downs
42%62nd
32%124th
pass rate, 1st down
52%16th
30%125th
no-huddle share
97%8th
51%81st
pass rate, passing downs
69%41st
74%22nd
pass rate, red zone
40%61st
36%80th
seconds per play (own drives)
30.145th
30.146th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
RUTG offence
RUTG offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.135
274
77 of 138
success rate
0.482
274
37 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.301
274
40 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.024
274
106 of 138
rush: success rate
0.489
274
34 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.766
274
123 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.334
274
49 of 138
pass: success rate
0.477
274
45 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.861
274
12 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.508
274
52 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.418
274
12 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.133
274
69 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.161
274
61 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.700
274
94 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.963
274
67 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.146
274
76 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.062
274
22 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.084
274
129 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.000
274
99 of 138
BC offence
BC offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.032
262
127 of 138
success rate
0.389
262
115 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.164
262
101 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.006
262
115 of 138
rush: success rate
0.439
262
81 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.935
262
79 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.063
262
110 of 138
pass: success rate
0.357
262
126 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.533
262
74 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.460
262
99 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.244
262
116 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.847
262
103 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.252
262
134 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.688
262
98 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.091
262
118 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.179
262
120 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.111
262
112 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.069
262
107 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.200
262
58 of 138
RUTG defence
RUTG defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.149
241
101 of 138
success rate
0.436
241
103 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.202
241
58 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.117
241
103 of 138
rush: success rate
0.464
241
120 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.900
241
65 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.307
241
114 of 138
pass: success rate
0.415
241
83 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.589
241
85 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.497
241
110 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.297
241
87 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.002
241
93 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.200
241
77 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.750
241
86 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.652
241
90 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.137
241
37 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.100
241
73 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.037
241
12 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.000
241
34 of 138
BC defence
BC defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.002
276
51 of 138
success rate
0.395
276
71 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.237
276
75 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.007
276
61 of 138
rush: success rate
0.390
276
59 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.030
276
101 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.155
276
76 of 138
pass: success rate
0.422
276
92 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.492
276
56 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.398
276
27 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.388
276
133 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.016
276
96 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.195
276
72 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.650
276
41 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.391
276
69 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.174
276
83 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.120
276
107 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.054
276
48 of 138
opponent average starting field position
69.700
276
29 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs