Betting
Spread
RUTG favouredMarket BC −3Ours RUTG −6
BC favouredgap 9 toward RUTG
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| RUTG away | +3.0 | 25.3 | +124 | 42.8% | — |
| BC home | -3.0 | 28.3 | -148 | 57.2% | — |
| Total | 53.5 | |
The closing line: this game was played before live prices were being collected.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| RUTG away | -6.0 | 29.8 | 65.6% | -9.0 |
| BC home | +6.0 | 23.7 | 34.4% | +9.0 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| RUTG away | +4.0 | 25.9 | 39.1% | +1.0 |
| BC home | -4.0 | 29.9 | 60.9% | -1.0 |
| Total | 55.9 | | | +2.4 |
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | RUTG | BC |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | -1.575th | -4.2103rd |
| Defence (cards) | +0.162nd | -1.7111th |
| Card team rating | -1.369th | -5.9109th |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | -1.675th | -4.690th |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | -0.389th | -0.280th |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | -0.379th | -0.384th |
| Card line | BC +6.0 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 44% | 16% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Dylan Lonergan RUTG75 ▼2 overall · Senior
Points added per play0.406
Completion56.1%
TD–INT7-5
Pass attempts, median game29
Pass yards, median game242
Rush yards, median game13
Games this season3
Team throws per game31.8
Mason McKenzie BC73 overall · Junior
Points added per play0.188
Completion56.5%
TD–INT3-5
Pass attempts, median game26
Pass yards, median game198
Rush yards, median game86
Games this season4
Team throws per game27.0
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| RUTG away | 2-2 | 50% | -6.8 | 3-1 | +5.8 |
| BC home | 2-2 | 50% | -8.0 | 0-4 | -8.5 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
No 4+ streak in any split for either side.
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
Built when the game's bundle is (Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)).
Who is out (reported)
No news read for this game yet.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| RUTG | A. Raymond RB | questionable Undisclosed | Wed, Sep 30 | Raymond is dealing with undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will be available Saturday against the Indiana. |
| RUTG | D. Kaliakmanis WR | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Kaliakmanis is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and he is not projected to suit up against USC on Sunday. |
| RUTG | K. Levy CB | out Undisclosed | Thu, Sep 17 | Levy is battling with an undisclsoed injury, and he will be out of the lineup against USC on Saturday. |
| RUTG | F. Toure WR | questionable Knee | Fri, Sep 11 | Toure is nursing with a knee injury, and it is unknown if he will play against the USC on Saturday, September 19th. |
| BC | B. Clough TE | questionable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Clough is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play Saturday against the SMU. |
| BC | R. Swanson WR | probable Undisclosed | Thu, Sep 24 | Swanson is managing with a Undisclosed injury , but it is expected to play against the Virginia Tech on Saturday. |
| BC | B. MacCormack III RB | out Shoulder | Sat, Sep 19 | MacCormack III is dealing with an shoulder injury, and he will miss an extended period. |