Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). TTU wins about 68% of the time at a number like ours.
TCU
Games
4
Plays per game
69.8
Drives per game
11.2
SP+
8.2 (42nd, offence 58th, defence 28th)
Returning production
22% (pass 11%, rush 31%, receiving 29%)
TTU
Games
4
Plays per game
69.2
Drives per game
12.5
SP+
20.2 (11th, offence 11th, defence 17th)
Returning production
53% (pass 27%, rush 99%, receiving 57%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
TCU
TTU
pass rate, all downs
52%41st
47%82nd
pass rate, standard downs
47%33rd
41%75th
pass rate, 1st down
46%43rd
47%39th
no-huddle share
97%10th
57%77th
pass rate, red zone
34%88th
29%114th
pass rate, passing downs
63%72nd
60%89th
seconds per play (own drives)
30.924th
26.7107th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
TCU offence
TCU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.174
279
64 of 138
success rate
0.462
279
51 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.240
279
62 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.030
279
104 of 138
rush: success rate
0.470
279
51 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.771
279
120 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.319
279
53 of 138
pass: success rate
0.464
279
52 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.664
279
41 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.573
279
9 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.218
279
130 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.030
279
84 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.164
279
63 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.842
279
19 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.433
279
99 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.133
279
59 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.104
279
106 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.029
279
12 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
67.500
279
113 of 138
TTU offence
TTU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.272
277
32 of 138
success rate
0.505
277
21 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.154
277
104 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.242
277
27 of 138
rush: success rate
0.524
277
12 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.851
277
102 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.467
277
22 of 138
pass: success rate
0.517
277
22 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.513
277
79 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.548
277
31 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.397
277
20 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.286
277
43 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.177
277
85 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.774
277
53 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.593
277
34 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.177
277
119 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.097
277
91 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.079
277
125 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.800
277
83 of 138
TCU defence
TCU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.121
223
14 of 138
success rate
0.368
223
47 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
0.925
223
1 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.286
223
3 of 138
rush: success rate
0.316
223
17 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.461
223
4 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.072
223
54 of 138
pass: success rate
0.417
223
85 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.359
223
21 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.408
223
35 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.282
223
72 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.544
223
35 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.211
223
90 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.562
223
15 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.000
223
49 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.179
223
94 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.117
223
105 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.063
223
77 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.600
223
84 of 138
TTU defence
TTU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.003
278
52 of 138
success rate
0.353
278
34 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.376
278
117 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.038
278
72 of 138
rush: success rate
0.359
278
40 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.969
278
87 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.019
278
33 of 138
pass: success rate
0.363
278
38 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.624
278
94 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.374
278
15 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.312
278
98 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.962
278
90 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.194
278
71 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
278
51 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.571
278
20 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.183
278
103 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.101
278
76 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.083
278
121 of 138
opponent average starting field position
74.700
278
114 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs