Betting
Spread
TCU favouredMarket TTU −16.5Ours TTU −8
TTU favouredgap 8.5 toward TCU
Grey dot: the market · gold: our card line · small dot: FEI (bcftoys.com). A gap is a reason to look, not to bet.
Vegas
| Team | Spread | Points | Moneyline | Win% | Kalshi |
|---|
| TCU away | +16.5 | 19.5 | +625 | 13.2% | — |
| TTU home | -16.5 | 36.0 | -950 | 86.8% | — |
| Total | 55.5 | |
The closing line: this game was played before live prices were being collected.
Our model — cards
| Team | Spread | Points | Win% | vs book |
|---|
| TCU away | +8.0 | 23.8 | 29.9% | -8.5 |
| TTU home | -8.0 | 31.7 | 70.1% | +8.5 |
| Total | no total model | | | |
FEI — bcftoys.com
Nothing to show for this game.
"Points" is the implied score for each side: a spread and a total are the margin and the sum, so solving them back out says what each team is expected to score. A favourite is shown negative, the way a book quotes it. "vs book" is that model's line for the team minus the book's, so a plus means the model makes them the weaker side. Our cards are EA College Football 27 launch ratings rolled up; the gap between two teams is multiplied by a scale fitted on this season's results (real margins have run about 1.8 times the raw gap), plus 2.5 points of home field; the win chance comes from how far 7,877 FBS results landed from a line. FEI is Brian Fremeau's projection, shown as a reference only: measured on his own results pages it went 49.9% against the spread over 3,101 games (2022–25), and the pickers never see it. Neither model has shown it beats a closing line.
Team ratings
| Points vs an average FBS team | TCU | TTU |
|---|
| Offence (cards) | +1.549th | +2.242nd |
| Defence (cards) | +0.261st | +2.417th |
| Card team rating | +1.749th | +4.637th |
| SP+ (CFBD's rating, theirs) | +8.242nd | +20.211th |
| FEI (bcftoys.com, theirs) | +0.250th | +0.623rd |
| F+ (FEI + SP+, theirs) | +0.549th | +1.215th |
| Card line | TTU -8.0 (the gap ×1.87, fitted on 215 games, plus 2.5 home field) |
| Returning production | 22% | 53% |
Cards are EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest) with CFBD's measured stats shown beside them; the team rating rolls EA's starters up with the NFL position weights, unmeasured for college. SP+ is opponent-adjusted; ours is not yet.
Quarterbacks
Jaden Craig TCU80 ▲1 overall · Senior
Points added per play0.255
Completion68.2%
TD–INT7-3
Pass attempts, median game32
Pass yards, median game324
Rush yards, median game2
Games this season4
Team throws per game33.2
Will Hammond TTU76 ▲1 overall · Sophomore
Points added per play0.347
Completion69.0%
TD–INT4-5
Pass attempts, median game28
Pass yards, median game241
Rush yards, median game21
Games this season4
Team throws per game30.2
The starter comes from the maintained depth chart (cfbdepth.com). The rating is EA College Football 27's Week 3 Ratings (EA re-rates weekly; we take the newest); everything under it is what CFBD has measured this season, as a median game rather than a total so a man who missed time is not shrunk.
Against the number
| Team | ATS | Cover% | vs spread | O/U | vs total |
|---|
| TCU away | 2-2 | 50% | -1.8 | 1-3 | -10.3 |
| TTU home | 1-3 | 25% | -10.5 | 3-1 | -0.8 |
Against DraftKings' closing number, this season. A record of what happened and nothing more — cover rates do not predict, which is why the pickers never see them.
Streak trends
| Team | Split | Streak (4+), and what happened next in 8,097 games |
|---|
| TTU | all | won 9 straight — next game covered 49.1% of the time (5637 cases) |
| TTU | home | won 10 straight — next game covered 49.1% of the time (3632 cases) |
| TTU | favourite | won 9 straight — next game covered 49.1% of the time (5637 cases) |
| TTU | home favourite | won 10 straight — next game covered 49.1% of the time (3632 cases) |
| TTU | favourite of 7+ | won 9 straight — next game covered 49.1% of the time (5637 cases) |
| TTU | division | won 7 straight — next game covered 49.8% of the time (9369 cases) |
| TTU | home division | won 7 straight — next game covered 49.8% of the time (9369 cases) |
Cover, win/loss and over/under streaks in every split (home, away, favourite, underdog, division, primetime, big favourite), counted against the closing line. Measured over every FBS season on file: cover and over/under streaks revert (fade 6+); college win/loss streaks tell you nothing against the spread (50%), so they are shown here but the picker ignores them. These never reach the pickers' bundle; the "streak" row on the picks board bets on its own.
Venue, weather, rest and travel
Built when the game's bundle is (Jones AT&T Stadium).
Who is out (reported)
No news read for this game yet.
Covers.com injury tags
| Team | Player | Status | Since | Note |
|---|
| TCU | M. Short LB | out Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Short is sidelined with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for return. |
| TCU | J. Pitchford RB | out Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Pitchford has been out of the lineup due to an undisclosed injury, and he will be not available against Cougars on Saturday. |
| TCU | K. Lemmermann K | questionable Undisclosed | Thu, Oct 1 | Lemmermann is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Cougars on Saturday. |
| TCU | J. Dwyer WR | out Foot | Fri, Sep 11 | Dwyer is dealing with a foot injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time. |
| TTU | T. Carter Jr. TE | probable Shoulder | Mon, Sep 28 | Carter Jr is nursing a shoulder injury, but he is expected to play against Colorado on Saturday. |
| TTU | T. White LB | questionable Knee | Sat, Sep 26 | White is battling with a knee injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Colorado on Saturday, October 3rd. |
| TTU | A. Boyd CB | questionable Undisclosed | Sat, Sep 26 | Boyd is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Colorado on Saturday, October 3rd. |