Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). ASU wins about 58% of the time at a number like ours.
ASU
Games
3
Plays per game
67.3
Drives per game
13.3
SP+
3.0 (60th, offence 73rd, defence 46th)
Returning production
16% (pass 5%, rush -5%, receiving 31%)
UCF
Games
4
Plays per game
56.8
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
8.7 (40th, offence 65th, defence 23rd)
Returning production
25% (pass 4%, rush -17%, receiving 58%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
ASU
UCF
pass rate, all downs
49%65th
43%106th
pass rate, standard downs
44%48th
38%97th
pass rate, 1st down
50%22nd
43%68th
no-huddle share
89%24th
73%56th
pass rate, passing downs
57%102nd
55%112th
pass rate, red zone
50%21st
24%123rd
seconds per play (own drives)
27.691st
29.754th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
ASU offence
ASU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.058
202
105 of 138
success rate
0.416
202
97 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.396
202
18 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.018
202
110 of 138
rush: success rate
0.396
202
107 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.050
202
37 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.186
202
85 of 138
pass: success rate
0.447
202
65 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.743
202
27 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.463
202
97 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.318
202
67 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.690
202
122 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.198
202
101 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.778
202
50 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.600
202
88 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.163
202
96 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.104
202
104 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.059
202
81 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
68.000
202
109 of 138
UCF offence
UCF offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.119
227
85 of 138
success rate
0.436
227
76 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.206
227
81 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.180
227
46 of 138
rush: success rate
0.445
227
74 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.165
227
12 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.053
227
113 of 138
pass: success rate
0.426
227
79 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.278
227
130 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.494
227
67 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.299
227
87 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.052
227
80 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.172
227
78 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.800
227
41 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.769
227
21 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.137
227
65 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.097
227
92 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.040
227
34 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
63.200
227
136 of 138
ASU defence
ASU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.023
189
63 of 138
success rate
0.370
189
50 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.179
189
49 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.026
189
45 of 138
rush: success rate
0.394
189
62 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.838
189
34 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.096
189
60 of 138
pass: success rate
0.337
189
21 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.600
189
90 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.451
189
72 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.224
189
22 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.907
189
81 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.149
189
23 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.636
189
36 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.684
189
28 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.159
189
64 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.090
189
55 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.069
189
92 of 138
opponent average starting field position
70.000
189
33 of 138
UCF defence
UCF defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.047
289
32 of 138
success rate
0.343
289
25 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.275
289
91 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.119
289
23 of 138
rush: success rate
0.307
289
14 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.872
289
50 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.077
289
56 of 138
pass: success rate
0.385
289
60 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.595
289
87 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.400
289
31 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.248
289
39 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.291
289
13 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.241
289
114 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.625
289
34 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.304
289
14 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.173
289
82 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.111
289
92 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.062
289
73 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.500
289
81 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs