Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). BAY wins about 58% of the time at a number like ours.
BAY
Games
4
Plays per game
82.2
Drives per game
13.8
SP+
8.1 (43rd, offence 55th, defence 31st)
Returning production
60% (pass 78%, rush 68%, receiving 47%)
UCF
Games
4
Plays per game
56.8
Drives per game
11.8
SP+
8.7 (40th, offence 65th, defence 23rd)
Returning production
25% (pass 4%, rush -17%, receiving 58%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
BAY
UCF
pass rate, all downs
51%47th
43%106th
pass rate, standard downs
40%83rd
38%97th
pass rate, 1st down
40%94th
43%68th
no-huddle share
99%1st
73%56th
pass rate, passing downs
75%17th
55%112th
pass rate, red zone
46%31st
24%123rd
seconds per play (own drives)
23.3136th
29.754th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
BAY offence
BAY offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.092
329
98 of 138
success rate
0.401
329
104 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.263
329
55 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.055
329
90 of 138
rush: success rate
0.444
329
75 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.862
329
97 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.177
329
87 of 138
pass: success rate
0.373
329
113 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.756
329
23 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.449
329
109 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.298
329
88 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.938
329
95 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.169
329
73 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.737
329
77 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
3.393
329
100 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.167
329
102 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.103
329
102 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.064
329
92 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
64.200
329
133 of 138
UCF offence
UCF offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.119
227
85 of 138
success rate
0.436
227
76 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.206
227
81 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.180
227
46 of 138
rush: success rate
0.445
227
74 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.165
227
12 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.053
227
113 of 138
pass: success rate
0.426
227
79 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.278
227
130 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.494
227
67 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.299
227
87 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.052
227
80 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.172
227
78 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.800
227
41 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.769
227
21 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.137
227
65 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.097
227
92 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.040
227
34 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
63.200
227
136 of 138
BAY defence
BAY defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.115
290
16 of 138
success rate
0.321
290
12 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.139
290
38 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.257
290
5 of 138
rush: success rate
0.280
290
8 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.970
290
88 of 138
pass: points added per play
-0.025
290
25 of 138
pass: success rate
0.344
290
23 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.284
290
9 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.361
290
9 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.252
290
43 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.503
290
31 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.264
290
129 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.400
290
4 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
1.958
290
5 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.214
290
127 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.138
290
122 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.076
290
105 of 138
opponent average starting field position
71.100
290
51 of 138
UCF defence
UCF defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
-0.047
289
32 of 138
success rate
0.343
289
25 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.275
289
91 of 138
rush: points added per play
-0.119
289
23 of 138
rush: success rate
0.307
289
14 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.872
289
50 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.077
289
56 of 138
pass: success rate
0.385
289
60 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.595
289
87 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.400
289
31 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.248
289
39 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.291
289
13 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.241
289
114 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.625
289
34 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.304
289
14 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.173
289
82 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.111
289
92 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.062
289
73 of 138
opponent average starting field position
72.500
289
81 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs