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Friday 2026-10-30 19:30 · FBC Mortgage Stadium
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The trenches

Pass rushsack ratestopped behind the linefacessacks allowedpairing
UCF pass rush5.7% 12354th10.1% 21940thfaces BAY3.3% 12037th4.5% ~1.5 sacks
BAY pass rush7.7% 13027th14.7% 2315thfaces UCF4.2% 7153rd6.0% ~2.0 sacks

sacks from CFBD play-by-play; college has no charted pressure, and these rates are not opponent-adjusted Measured on 7,926 team-games 2022–25: a college line's sacks-allowed rate carries +0.27 into its next game and a defence's sack rate only +0.10 — the line is most of this. The pairing predicts the game's sack rate +0.27, yards per dropback −0.16 and points added per play −0.15. Heaviest quarter of pairings against lightest: 7.8% vs 4.2% sack rate, 6.1 vs 7.2 yards per dropback.

BAY with the ball

BAY offence vs UCF defenceBAY offenceUCF defencerank gap
points added per play0.09298th-0.04732nd-66
success rate0.401104th0.34325th-79
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)1.26355th1.27591st+36
rush: points added per play0.05590th-0.11923rd-67
rush: success rate0.44475th0.30714th-61
rush: explosiveness0.86297th0.87250th-47
pass: points added per play0.17787th0.07756th-31
pass: success rate0.373113th0.38560th-53
pass: explosiveness1.75623rd1.59587th+64
standard downs: success rate0.449109th0.40031st-78
passing downs: success rate0.29888th0.24839th-49
line yards per rush (the O-line)2.93895th2.29113th-82
rushes stopped at or behind the line0.16973rd0.241114th+41
short-yardage conversion rate0.73777th0.62534th-43
points per trip inside the 403.393100th2.30414th-86
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)0.167102nd0.17382nd-20
havoc allowed by the front seven0.103102nd0.11192nd-10
havoc allowed by the secondary0.06492nd0.06273rd-19
average starting field position (yards from own goal)64.200133rd——

UCF with the ball

UCF offence vs BAY defenceUCF offenceBAY defencerank gap
points added per play0.11985th-0.11516th-69
success rate0.43676th0.32112th-64
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)1.20681st1.13938th-43
rush: points added per play0.18046th-0.2575th-41
rush: success rate0.44574th0.2808th-66
rush: explosiveness1.16512th0.97088th+76
pass: points added per play0.053113th-0.02525th-88
pass: success rate0.42679th0.34423rd-56
pass: explosiveness1.278130th1.2849th-121
standard downs: success rate0.49467th0.3619th-58
passing downs: success rate0.29987th0.25243rd-44
line yards per rush (the O-line)3.05280th2.50331st-49
rushes stopped at or behind the line0.17278th0.264129th+51
short-yardage conversion rate0.80041st0.4004th-37
points per trip inside the 404.76921st1.9585th-16
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)0.13765th0.214127th+62
havoc allowed by the front seven0.09792nd0.138122nd+30
havoc allowed by the secondary0.04034th0.076105th+71
average starting field position (yards from own goal)63.200136th——

Rank gap = the defence's FBS rank minus the offence's on the same measure: +60 means the offence ranks 60 places better than the defence it faces. Unit against unit only — college has no player charting to name a matchup by.