Percentile among the 138 FBS teams on each measure this season, offence and defence, both teams. Raw values, plays behind them and ranks are in the tables below.
What actually happens around a number like this
Each bar is how often a college game lands on that margin, from 7,877 FBS games 2015–2025, centred on our card line. The spread misses by 12.3 points on average (37% within a touchdown). ARIZ wins about 58% of the time at a number like ours.
ARIZ
Games
4
Plays per game
70.0
Drives per game
11.5
SP+
10.7 (33rd, offence 32nd, defence 38th)
Returning production
65% (pass 120%, rush 60%, receiving 44%)
TTU
Games
4
Plays per game
69.2
Drives per game
12.5
SP+
20.2 (11th, offence 11th, defence 17th)
Returning production
53% (pass 27%, rush 99%, receiving 57%)
What each side chooses to do
Offence
ARIZ
TTU
pass rate, all downs
56%16th
47%82nd
pass rate, standard downs
51%8th
41%75th
pass rate, 1st down
53%14th
47%39th
no-huddle share
34%97th
57%77th
pass rate, passing downs
68%47th
60%89th
pass rate, red zone
60%5th
29%114th
seconds per play (own drives)
29.558th
26.7107th
choices, from CFBD play-by-play; a choice repeats within a season, a result mostly does not Rank 1 = highest rate / fastest among FBS.
ARIZ offence
ARIZ offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.213
280
56 of 138
success rate
0.500
280
22 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.151
280
106 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.147
280
62 of 138
rush: success rate
0.521
280
14 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.696
280
132 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.281
280
61 of 138
pass: success rate
0.493
280
33 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.510
280
80 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.536
280
35 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.419
280
11 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.534
280
17 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.118
280
12 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.850
280
14 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.321
280
46 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.114
280
30 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.075
280
44 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.039
280
30 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
71.200
280
56 of 138
TTU offence
TTU offence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.272
277
32 of 138
success rate
0.505
277
21 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.154
277
104 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.242
277
27 of 138
rush: success rate
0.524
277
12 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.851
277
102 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.467
277
22 of 138
pass: success rate
0.517
277
22 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.513
277
79 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.548
277
31 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.397
277
20 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
3.286
277
43 of 138
rushes stopped at or behind the line
0.177
277
85 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.774
277
53 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
4.593
277
34 of 138
havoc allowed (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.177
277
119 of 138
havoc allowed by the front seven
0.097
277
91 of 138
havoc allowed by the secondary
0.079
277
125 of 138
average starting field position (yards from own goal)
69.800
277
83 of 138
ARIZ defence
ARIZ defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.002
250
50 of 138
success rate
0.352
250
31 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.415
250
127 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.018
250
65 of 138
rush: success rate
0.347
250
33 of 138
rush: explosiveness
1.072
250
110 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.053
250
46 of 138
pass: success rate
0.356
250
30 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.601
250
91 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.403
250
32 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.277
250
64 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.589
250
42 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.253
250
125 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
1.000
250
137 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.824
250
35 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.168
250
78 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.108
250
88 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.060
250
64 of 138
opponent average starting field position
74.000
250
107 of 138
TTU defence
TTU defence
value
plays
FBS rank
points added per play
0.003
278
52 of 138
success rate
0.353
278
34 of 138
explosiveness (points added on successful plays)
1.376
278
117 of 138
rush: points added per play
0.038
278
72 of 138
rush: success rate
0.359
278
40 of 138
rush: explosiveness
0.969
278
87 of 138
pass: points added per play
0.019
278
33 of 138
pass: success rate
0.363
278
38 of 138
pass: explosiveness
1.624
278
94 of 138
standard downs: success rate
0.374
278
15 of 138
passing downs: success rate
0.312
278
98 of 138
line yards per rush (the O-line)
2.962
278
90 of 138
rushes stopped (by this defence) at or behind the line
0.194
278
71 of 138
short-yardage conversion rate
0.667
278
51 of 138
points per trip inside the 40
2.571
278
20 of 138
havoc created (TFL, forced fumbles, breakups per play)
0.183
278
103 of 138
havoc created by the front seven
0.101
278
76 of 138
havoc created by the secondary
0.083
278
121 of 138
opponent average starting field position
74.700
278
114 of 138
points added per play: CFBD predicted points added (their EPA); positive helps the offence · success rate: share of plays that gain 50% of needed yards on 1st, 70% on 2nd, 100% on 3rd/4th · explosiveness: average points added on the plays that succeeded - big-play size · havoc: tackles for loss, forced fumbles, interceptions and breakups as a share of plays · rank: 1 = best among FBS teams in the direction that helps that side · fei: bcftoys.com FEI: opponent-adjusted possession efficiency, offence/defence/special teams, with FBS rank - theirs · fplus: bcftoys.com F+: FEI and SP+ combined, in standard deviations above average - theirs